Here’s a not-so-bold 2026 NFL Draft prediction: Fernando Mendoza will be better than JaMarcus Russell.
The Raiders will open the draft by selecting Mendoza with their second-ever No. 1 overall pick — and he won’t have to do much to be better than the all-time bust Russell (No. 1 in 2007) was during a three-year career.
Now, on to the bold predictions.
Who will take the all-world running back? Will a second quarterback be drafted in the first round? Which veterans will get traded for picks?
Here’s a look at all that and more:
1. A running back, a safety and an inside linebacker all are top-five picks for the first time since 1981
It’s possible that several NFL decision-makers might internally combust if this happens — effectively suspending (or ending?) positional-value groupthink.
What’s the most likely path? The Cardinals select Jeremiyah Love at No. 3, the Titans pivot to Sonny Styles at No. 4 and the Giants have their choices narrowed and grab Caleb Downs at No. 5.
Love’s other most likely draft spots are No. 4, No. 5 and No. 7 (Commanders).
In 1981, the Saints (No. 1) and Jets (No. 3) took running backs George Rogers and Freeman McNeil, respectively. The Seahawks took Hall of Fame safety Kenny Easley (No. 4). And the Cardinals took linebacker E.J. Junior (No. 5).
The other top-five pick was an outside linebacker named Lawrence Taylor.
2. Ty Simpson becomes Matthew Stafford’s heir apparent
There’s a plausible scenario where Simpson relives Jaxson Dart’s draft experience.
The Alabama product waits to see if the Steelers — being held hostage by Aaron Rodgers’ indecisiveness — want to fire a warning shot and draft a quarterback at No. 20. If they don’t, the clock starts for a team — Cardinals or Jets — to trade up from the early second round to the late first round to secure Simpson with a fifth-year contract option.
The Giants scrambled to put together a trade with the Texans (after a handshake deal with the Chargers fell through) to trade up for Dart after the Steelers passed at No. 21 last April.
But the Rams will end all of that drama before it starts by using No. 13 — their highest pick since 2016 — on Simpson to sit behind the reigning 38-year-old MVP Stafford for one or two seasons. Head coach Sean McVay has played it super-nonchalant when asked about Simpson but some league sources see them as a perfect match.
3. No veterans are traded during the first round, but several are over the next two days, including a Jets shopping spree
Chiefs general manager Brett Veach is an excellent scout. Is he a good fortune-teller?
Veach predicted a frenzy of trades because there is not a consensus among the first-round prospects at edge and offensive tackle, meaning teams will be more willing to move around the board while targeting their preference.
Other NFL minds think there will be fewer trades than normal because so many of the big-name players — Jaylen Waddle, Dexter Lawrence and Trent McDuffie — already were dealt. And the A.J. Brown trade from the Eagles to the Patriots is on hold until June 1, ESPN reported.
So, the prediction here is that movement could be as quiet as 2025, when only four first-round trades were made during the draft. Where things will get interesting is on Day 2.
Let’s call the trades of edge Jonathan Greenard from the Vikings to the Eagles, receiver Brandon Aiyuk from the 49ers to the Commanders, and both cornerback Kenny Moore II (Colts) and quarterback Spencer Rattler (Saints) to the Jets.
Maxx Crosby stays put with the Raiders despite rumors connecting him to the Lions and Bears.
4. A record-tying number of offensive linemen are drafted in the first round
The pre-merger record is 10 from 1968. Since then, it’s nine in 2013, 2022 and 2024.
Even without a center, this first-round class will amount to nine (and maybe 10) offensive linemen.
It’s not as sexy as when the six-quarterback first-round record of 1983 was tied within the first 12 picks of 2024.
But Francis Mauigoa will be a top-10 pick, followed closely by Olaivavega Ioane, Spencer Fano and Monroe Freeling. The real run will start in the back half of the first round with Kadyn Proctor, Blake Miller, Caleb Lomu and Max Iheanachor.
What decides whether this class ties the modern record or the all-time record is whether one or both of guards Chase Bisontis and Keylan Rutledge join the group.
5. The Chiefs draft Travis Kelce’s successor
The most innovative NFL offenses are finding ways to play two and three tight ends together.
Kelce’s career is year-to-year at this point, and his production is way down from its peak.
The Chiefs (No. 9 and No. 29) could address needs at left tackle and cornerback in any order — or even go with two cornerbacks.
But Kenyon Sadiq (4.39-second 40-yard dash) is the fastest tight end prospect since 2003 and a move blocker who finishes to the dirt. Pairing him with Kelce in 2026 and then ultimately letting Sadiq take over Kelce’s route tree will be too appealing to ignore for head coach Andy Reid.
The question is whether the Chiefs will be daring enough to let Sadiq slip past No. 9 and then try to trade up from No. 29.
