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As we already know, the playoffs take on a much different script and feel than the regular season. This is the case in all sports and thus requires a different mindset when analyzing each game.
On top of that, handicapping prop bets also requires a nuanced understanding of each situation and how it will impact a particular player’s production.
The Atlanta Dream host the Indiana Fever as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 154.5 points in the decisive Game 3 of their first-round playoff series.
The first two games have landed well below the total and the betting market has adjusted accordingly with a posted total about five points lower. Plus, tight defense and loose officiating often occur in do-or-die playoff games.
Sports bettors must also decide how this impacts prop bets. Coaches tend to shorten their rotations and thus we often see more minutes from starters. But even with the increased minutes, production can vary because the higher stakes can result in more measured and fewer possessions.
I am targeting Atlanta forward Naz Hillmon.
Although she is expected to win the Sixth Player of the Year award, she has been starting since Brittney Griner moved to a reserve role. The Dream rely on Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard for their main scoring, but Hillmon is a valuable weapon that always seems to find points.
Hillmon is often open from 3, as defenses collapse on Gray and Howard. Plus, she is a skilled offensive rebounder and thus can generate points in the paint.
She scored 16 points in Game 1 and then just eight points in Game 2. Nevertheless, that came after a scoreless first half in a forgettable start by the entire team.
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She also sat most of the fourth quarter in a blowout and that is what prevented her from reaching double-digit points.
I have a 63-50-2 record in this Post sports section, pending Wednesday night’s play. My next pick is Naz Hillmon Over 9.5 points.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
