John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks did not have an easy road to the Sweet 16, but it doesn’t get any easier from here.
The Hogs defeated No. 7 Kansas in Round 1 and No. 2 St. John’s in the Round of 32, but Texas Tech could represent their toughest test.
The Red Raiders are the No. 8 team in KenPom’s power rankings, and they are one spot better in BartTorvik’s model.
Texas Tech is a 5.5-point favorite over Arkansas in Thursday’s Sweet 16 clash.
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Arkansas vs. Texas Tech betting preview
A lot of punters had Texas Tech circled as a potential gatecrasher for the Final Four. Although the Red Raiders don’t have a resume that compares to teams like Houston, Auburn, or Duke, their underlying numbers are terrific.
Texas Tech grades out as the fifth-most efficient offense in KenPom’s model and they are a top-40 unit on defense.
Arkansas enjoyed a terrific performance against St. John’s on Saturday, but it’s fair to wonder if the Hogs just caught the Red Storm on the right day. The Johnnies shot just 28 percent from the field and were 2-for-22 from 3-point range.
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St. John’s was still able to stick around in the game despite that poor shooting performance.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech pick
The Razorbacks have proven to be a gritty outfit all season, but this looks like a step too far.
Even with Adou Thiero back in the lineup, the Razorbacks just don’t have the scoring power to keep up with the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech is an offensive powerhouse and only seems to be getting better as the season progresses.
The Pick: Texas Tech -5.5
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.