DALLAS — The road to Republicans defying history and holding onto the House for another two years comes down to select districts in Arizona, Maine, Washington, and elsewhere, the chamber’s No. 3 Republican told The Post.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) also touted gains that Republicans will pick up from President Trump’s redistricting push that will net more red seats in Texas and Florida. A Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act also gave way to southern states redrawing lines to the GOP’s benefit in Louisiana and Alabama.
“I like where we’re at,” Emmer told The Post on the sidelines of the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas.
Republicans now have a narrow 218-seat majority. Democrats would have to net just three new seats in November to take back the House.
Emmer shrugged off the bleak polls for Republicans and contended that the mechanics of the election indicate the GOP has a “very close” but doable map to victory.
“The first order of business is to protect our incumbents. The cheapest seat to win is one you already hold…these people are in a race every two years,” Emmer said. “They are battle-tested already.”
Emmer pointed to three races as key pickup opportunities in particular: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Washington’s 3rd District, and Arizona’s 1st District.
He also touted the redistricting war with Democrats as an underrated advantage for the GOP this cycle.
“We’re getting a seat in Alabama. We’re getting a seat in Louisiana. We’re getting a seat in Tennessee, right? We’re getting a seat in Missouri if this latest court case holds up. So there’s four. Worst case, you’re losing four in California, and you’re losing one in Nevada.”
“But we haven’t even talked about Texas or Florida, and there are other places,” he added. “Even in the most conservative reading, we should stay in the majority as long as we’re doing our work district by district.”
Another potential trump card Republicans have is the cash cannon they have.
“[We] have a fundraising advantage right now in the entire Republican ecosystem. We’ve raised far more funds than Democrats for the first time in a decade,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told The Post.
“I’m very bullish on the midterm,” he added at another point. “I went to the districts that everyone agrees are going to decide this thing. So we went to the swing districts and the tight-margin places, and what I saw was very encouraging. There was a lot of energy on the ground.”
Republicans are widely seen as the underdogs in the battle for control of the House. Prediction market Kalshi currently gives Democrats an 84% chance of flipping the lower chamber. Since 1938, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two elections.
Many pundits have pointed to Trump’s lackluster approval rating, the war in Iran, and affordability concerns as boding poorly for Republicans. There are turnout concerns given that Trump isn’t on the ballot, hence the midterm convention, which is aimed at firing up the base.
Democrats also have a 5.7 percentage point edge over the GOP on the generic congressional ballot, per the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.
Still, some analysts have noted that polling aggregates have historically underestimated the GOP, meaning that Republicans might not actually be that far behind the Dems, if at all.
“I think what the prognosticators are getting wrong is we have the right candidates, we have the resources, and we have the right ideas, right?” House GOP Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) told The Post. “The Democrats have lost their way.”
“That’s what the Dems are getting wrong,” she added. “I’m hard-pressed to see independents or people voting for communism. I just don’t see it. I think people like their freedom. I think people like keeping more money in their pockets.”
The Cook Political Report currently favors Republicans for 209 House seats and ranks 21 as tossups.
