A trio of midterm Senate races were shifted in favor of Democrats Thursday by a top election handicapper, but Republicans are still favored to maintain control of the upper chamber.
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics updated races in Alaska, from leans Republican to toss-up, North Carolina, from toss-up to leans Democrat and Ohio, from leans Republican to toss-up.
All three Senate seats are currently held by Republicans.
The moves give Democrats a clearer, but still difficult, path at taking the majority in the Senate after November.
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is seeking a third term, will face a crowded field of candidates in the Last Frontier State’s Aug. 18 nonpartisan primary.
The top four vote-getters in the primary advance to the general election and Sullivan’s main competitor for the seat is expected to be former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska).
Alaska went for President Trump over Kamala Harris by 13 percentage points in the 2024 election, but UVA’s Center for Politics notes Peltola did much better than the former vice president in her race, losing to Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) by only 2.5 points.
In the Buckeye State, Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) will face former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in November.
UVA’s Center for Politics noted a shock poll put out by Fox News last week that showed Brown up 53%-45% on Husted in the contest for the final two years of Vice President JD Vance’s term.
The group also pointed to Brown outperforming Harris in 2024. The former senator lost his re-election bid to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) by 3.5 points, whereas Harris lost to Trump by 11 points.
In North Carolina, the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis will see former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley take on ex-Gov. Roy Cooper.
UVA’s Center for Politics cited Cooper’s fundraising advantage, history in the state and Whatley’s staunch support of Trump – whose favorability rating is polling underwater in the state – as reasons for giving the Democrat a slight edge.
A Carolina Journal survey released last month showed Cooper up 11 points on Whatley.
“Today’s changes are more about the macro-level, big picture political factors as opposed to micro-level developments in these individual races,” UVA’s Center for Politics said. “That includes polling, both in these races as well as the president’s poor approval rating combined with the House generic ballot, a catch-all assessment of the political environment.
“These big-picture factors haven’t really changed much in recent months although, to the extent they have, they’ve gotten worse for Republicans, to the point where 2026 could be as bad for Republicans as 2018 was, or perhaps even worse.”
However, the handicapper cautioned that Democrats will need to win every toss-up state (Ohio, Alaska, Maine and Michigan) to get to a majority, while Republicans need just one to preserve a nominal 50-50 majority because they hold the vice presidential tiebreaker.
