WASHINGTON — Republicans are gaining on Democrats’ lead heading into the midterm elections, a shocking new poll found.
Democrats have a 48% to 45% edge for registered voters on the question of which party should take control of the House of Representatives, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll.
That’s a slight slip from May, when 49% of registered voters backed Democrats, compared to 44% who backed Republicans in an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll.
For context, Democrats had a roughly 10-point lead over Republicans heading into the 2018 midterm elections during a blue wave year, per ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos.
“Everyone assuming a landslide in November should just probably rethink that,” Neera Tanden, the president and CEO of the Center for American Progress, warned on X about the new poll.
Traditionally, the party in control of the White House loses House seats in the midterm elections. That’s been the case in all but two midterm cycles since 1938.
But this cycle, Democrats have faced a civil war between the mainstream elements of the party and far-left insurgents. They’ve also grappled with a broader identity crisis in the wake of their loss in the 2024 election loss to President Trump.
Republicans’ main campaign arms also have larger war chests.
All of this, paired with the poll showing the GOP slightly gaining ground, has given Republicans hope that they are still in the game and might have an opportunity to turn things around heading into the midterms — though they are still widely seen as likely to lose the House.
Perhaps more realistically, the poll indicates that Democrats could have a smaller midterm victory in House races than previously expected.
Overall, Democrats have a 4.7 percentage point lead over Democrats in the generic congressional race, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.
Crucially, the ABC-Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that registered voters feel that Republicans better represent them on important issues, 41% to 40%, and that the GOP will do a better job on the economy, 39% to 35%.
But, in a bright spot for Democrats, it found a massive, 10-point lead with voters who are certain to turn out to the polls in November, a lead that’s on par with the Dems’ edge on enthusiasm in 2018.
Republicans have long been nervous about turnout in November, given that Trump isn’t on the ballot and that the party is divided internally over key issues such as the war in Iran.
Trump is also underwater in voters’ top issues for the midterms, including the economy, the war in Iran, and immigration.
The poll sampled 2,092 registered voters between July 8-13 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
