Republicans are facing a potential Election Day onslaught by Democrats, with control of the House and Senate in jeopardy after an October polling collapse that put a raft of candidates in danger and threatened to wipe out multiple incumbents previously thought to be holding safe seats.
President Trump tried to stop the bleeding through a succession of rallies in red states, a move his advisors said was an effort to goose MAGA turnout after polls showed Democrats were anxious to vote and turning out in record early numbers. He is already promising to brandish his veto pen if Democrats manage to take charge.
By Saturday, the Cook Political Report was eyeing seven “toss up” Senate races, six in normally Republican territory like Kansas and Alaska, with one in blue-leaning Michigan. Many of them were within 2% in polling averages.
The non-partisan analysts are now predicting a Democratic gain of 12-25 House seats, enough to wipe out the four-vote Republican majority and make Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) speaker. Democrats were “slight favorites” to overcome the GOP’s current 53-47 Senate majority.
Here are some of the Midterm nail-biters that will determine the outcome:
Senate
South Carolina: Darline Graham (R) vs. Dr. Annie Andrews (D)
The late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline beat back experienced Republicans with a lift from President Trump, but admitted her inexperience in a debate, saying “I’m not that informed on national security.” A GOP group plowed a late $750,000 into the race as Andrews gained in the GOP-leaning state.
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D)
A fight over ballot manipulation threatened to upend the race at the 11th hour after a report linking Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign to the effort to put a “Decoy Dan” with the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) on the ballot. The DOJ is firing off subpoenas to determine if laws are broken.
Maine: Susan Collins (R) vs. Troy Jackson (D)
Lefty Democrats had hoped to finally oust Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) but lefty oyster farmer Graham Platner’s campaign imploded. His replacement, Troy Jackson, has been subpar, but got a chance to rebound when Collins’ camp mocked the logger as someone fit only to sell a “cord of wood.”
Kansas: Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)
Republicans have spent weeks trying to put out a prairie fire in Kansas after Democratic megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton weaponized high diesel prices tied to the war in Iran. Marshall risked blowing a race Republicans haven’t lost since 1932 after voters soured on the obstetrician’s aggressive medical billing practices.
Texas: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)
Republicans poured close to $400 million into the race after scandal-tarred candidate AG Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the primary. State Rep. James Talarico (D-TX) ran as a mild-mannered centrist but Trump branded him as “Talafreako.”
Michigan: Mike Rogers (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Abdul El-Sayed faces scrutiny of his anti-Israel positions and family ties to the Muslim Brotherhood in his bid to keep former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) from avenging a prior Senate run loss. Trump called El-Sayed a “jihadist” and JD Vance called him a “little weasel.” El-Sayed led every public poll in October, but still had Democrats sweating and lost some prominent Jewish Democrats.
Ohio: Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
President Trump talked up the “ass” of appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) during his trips and TV appearances meant to boost the former Division III defensive back. That hasn’t helped focus Husted’s message against a tough competitor, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), even in a Republican stronghold.
Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D)
Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV journalist, was a welcome standard-bearer for Republicans amid a field of under-performing candidates, helping stave off hardships brought by high diesel prices and tariffs. Democrat four-time Paralympian Turek used his bio to make his race a jump ball in a Republican state.
Louisiana: Julia Letlow (R) vs. Jamie Davis (D)
President Trump scrambled the race by endorsing Letlow (R-La.), a telegenic loyalist, over sitting Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who had voted for his 2021 impeachment. A shock Hart Research poll Friday had Letlow and Democrat Davis tied at 45%, with the small time farmer Davis dominating among independents and reaching out to black voters, who make up one-third of the electorate, through repeat media interviews. Trump planned an 11th hour telerally for Letlow Monday.
House
New York-21 — Anthony Constantino (R) vs. Blake Gendebien (D)
One of the nastiest House races in the country came in an Upstate district Trump carried by 20 points in 2024. Sticker Mule owner Anthony Constantino put a huge Trump sign on his factory roof and commissioned a bronze statue of the president. But North Country voters were sour on tariffs, giving dairy farmer Blake Gendebien a shot.
Ohio-7: Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)
Family abuse allegations upended the chances of former White House aide Rep. Max Miller, to the point where he released a TV ad in October about “the pain of divorce,” which he called “messy and complicated.” His rival, ironworker Brian Poindexter, decades ago pleaded guilty to assault and has other skeletons.
Texas-15 Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Bobby Pulido (D)
Tejano singer Bobby Pulido made limonada out of limones after incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX) mocked his career by telling voters: “This election isn’t about who you want performing at your niece’s quinceañera.” Pulido responded by performing at dozens of quinceañeras around the state, turning the race into a toss-up even after reports he once had a convicted sex-offender in his band.
North Carolina-9 Richard Hudson (R) vs. Richard Ojeda (D)
Even National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), who is charged with getting Republicans elected, may have been sweating his race against retired Army Maj. Richard Ojeda. He utilized an NRCC mailer that showed him holding a shotgun and wearing a camouflage hunting jacket, in a district Trump carried by 16 points that includes Fort Bragg.
