There’s a blue wind blowing in New York.
Momentum in competitive New York House contests is tilting more to the Democrats, according to a nonpartisan group that ranks congressional races.
In two major changes, the Cook Political Report Thursday changed the rating for GOP Rep. Mike Lawler’s Hudson Valley seat in the 17th Congressional District from “lean Republican” in November to “tossup.”
Cook also adjusted the rating for first-term Long Island Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen’s seat in the 4th Congressional District from the tossup column to “lean Democrat.”
Elsewhere, Cook moved seats in the 18th and 22nd Congressional districts upstate from the “likely Democratic” column to the “safe Democratic” column.
Democratic Reps. Pat Ryan and John Mannion are the incumbents in the 18th and 22nd districts, respectively.
In the 17th District, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee crowed that the rating shift to tossup was “just the latest sign that Republican Mike Lawler is more vulnerable than ever.”
DCCC spokesperson Riya Vashi said that after supporting President Trump’s agenda, voters “are more ready than ever to show [Lawler] the door this November.”
Lawler, first elected in 2022, is seeking a third term.
His camp dismissed the rating change, noting he was one of only three Republicans nationwide who won in districts that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried in 2024 “because he outworks his opponents.”
“He just posted historic fundraising numbers, owns a massive cash advantage, and has a proven record of results. Meanwhile, the Democratic clown car primary will continue to drive every candidate in it off the far left cliff and further out of touch with Hudson Valley taxpayers,” said Lawler campaign manager Ciro Riccardi.
A handful of Democrats are duking it out to win the nomination to face Lawler in November.
In the House overall, the Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats, giving the party momentum to win back the majority from Republicans.
Eight races shifted from “likely” to “solid” Democrat.
Ten other races tilted toward Dems.
“If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House,” Cook’s Erin Covey wrote in the analysis.
“Though that’s not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult.”
