WASHINGTON — Democrats notched a shocking upset victory Saturday when they flipped a Fort Worth-area Texas state Senate seat blue for the first time since 1992, defeating a President Trump-backed candidate.
Dem Taylor Rehmet dispatched Republican Leigh Wambsganss by more than 14 percentage points in the special-election race for the state seat in District 9, where President Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
“This win shows what is possible in Texas with strong organizing, great candidates, and strategic investments,” Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder crowed in a statement.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin added that Rehmet’s victory is “a warning sign to Republicans across the country” — as Trump has admitted the GOP is facing headwinds heading into the midterms.
The contest was to fill a vacancy left by four-term Republican Kelly Hancock, who became comptroller of Texas over the summer.
Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and leader with the machinists and aerospace workers union, came out on top in the Nov. 4 special election with 48% of the vote compared to Wambsganss’ 36% but was short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff, which then took place Saturday.
He will have to defend seat in November for a complete four-year term.
Trump publicly backed Wambsganss, hailing her as “an incredible supporter.”
Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas since 1994.
Adding to Republicans’ woes, Democrat Christian Menefee also prevailed in a special election for the Lone Star State’s solidly blue 18th Congressional District seat that had been held by late Dem Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died in March.
While Democrats were always expected to win that race, Rehmet’s win means that the GOP’s margin in the local House will slip to 218–214, narrowing the Republican leadership’s room for error.
Typically, special and off-year elections have lower voter turnout than midterm and presidential cycles, which can be difficult for the party in power in Washington, DC, to mobilize turnout, while the minority party usually has ample fodder to get its base energized.
Special and off-year elections also have been seen as a harbinger of what’s to come in the midterms.
Last week, Trump swung through Iowa to tout his accomplishments while acknowledging that the party in power typically faces an uphill battle in House races, dubbing it a “psychological factor.”
“Presidents, whether it’s Republican or Democrat, when they win, it doesn’t make any difference. They seem to lose the midterms,” Trump told Fox News’ Will Cain.
“Maybe [voters] want to put up a guard fence. You just don’t know. It doesn’t make sense,” he said. “Hopefully, we’re going to change that around. We’re doing great.”
Since 1938, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two elections in such races. Given the GOP’s threadbare grip on the lower chamber, many analysts believe Democrats are the favorites to control the House this time around.
That means Trump will likely face a wave of investigations that will plague the final two years of his term if Democrats regain control of key House committees.
