Tuesday’s tilt between Middle Tennessee State and Delaware has the potential to be the ugliest of the 2026 college football season.
Although things look OK on the surface for both of these 2-3 teams, the numbers paint a very different picture.
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ power rankings, this is a battle between the 118th-best team in FBS, Delaware, and No. 129, Middle Tennessee State.
If ever there was a game made for a Tuesday night, this is it.
MTSU vs. Delaware odds, pick
This game will be a battle between a stoppable force and a movable object, no matter who has the ball.
Delaware’s offense averages just 4.8 yards per play, 16.3 points per game, and grades out as the 108th-best offense by SP+, but they are taking on a defense that can’t stop anybody. The Blue Raiders rank 107th in the country in points allowed (31.5), 127th in yards per play allowed (6.7), and are 126th by SP+.
Things aren’t much prettier when Middle Tennessee has the ball.
The Blue Raiders rank 116th in yards per play, 117th in points per game, and 126th in SP+. Those are bleak numbers, but they’re going up against a defense that ranks 99th in points allowed, 88th in yards per play, and 117th in SP+.
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Everything about this game points to it coming down to which team can
Normally, when handicappers call a game a coin flip, it’s because both teams are very good and the margin between them is narrow. This is the inverse. MTSU and Delaware are among the worst teams in the country, and this contest will likely come down to which team avoids the back-breaking mistake.
The numbers suggest MTSU is better at taking care of the ball, and the Blue Raiders will be playing at home, so they probably carry a smidge of value as an underdog in this showdown between bottom-dwellers.
The Play: MTSU +2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
