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High-profile races that will determine which party controls the Senate for the next two years are extremely tight, according to a new CNN poll, as Maine and Kansas remain close and Democrats extended their leads in Texas and Michigan.
Democrats, who are widely projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives, need to flip four Senate seats from red to blue in order to gain a 51-seat majority, protecting their majority from the Vice Presidential tiebreaker.
Maine
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is the only Republican incumbent running in a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024.
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Collins’ Democratic challenger is Troy Jackson, the former president of the state senate who jumped into the race as a replacement for the previous nominee, scandal-plagued Graham Platner.
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, left, is on a glidepath to replace ex-candidate Graham Platner as the Democratic Party’s Senate nominee in Maine and face off in the midterm elections against longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins. (Ryan Murphy/Getty Images; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The race has no clear frontrunner, according to the CNN poll, though Jackson holds a marginal lead.
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49% of respondents told the outlet’s pollsters they favored Jackson, compared to 45% for Collins. While Jackson is slightly ahead, at least 12.5% of voters say they could still change their minds.
Respondents tied Collins to her party less than any other Republican running for Senate in the nation, with 46% of respondents saying they believe she would choose her constituents over the Republican Party.
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Sen. Susan Collins directs a question to Troy Jackson during a debate at Husson University in Bangor on Thursday. (Gregory Rec/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
Collins was one of seven Republicans to vote in favor of President Donald Trump’s second impeachment in 2021, and she joined Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, as the only Republicans to vote against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s Senate confirmation in 2025.
With Collins managing to distance herself from Trump, her race has largely become a referendum on her own career. Three-quarters of respondents from either party told CNN pollsters that their choice was motivated more by Collins than Jackson.
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Michigan
In Michigan, despite warnings from some mainstream Democrats and the state’s Jewish community, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is building a lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich.
Respondents favored El-Sayed at 49% compared to the 42% who favored Rogers, according to the poll. CNN’s previous poll, released in early September, showed El-Sayed with a 47% share compared to Rogers’ 44%, showing the former public health director El-Sayed building on his lead.
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The Detroit Metro Times announced it was no longer seeking comment from Republican Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers over his “repeated lies and bigoted attacks” against hist Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed. (Nic Antaya/Getty Images; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
The Democrat has consolidated his party’s support after a contentious primary with Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich. 95% of likely Democrat voters say they’ll punch the ticket for El-Sayed, up from 90% in the September poll.
Rogers voters, meanwhile, are motivated more by dislike for the Democratic candidate than faith in the Republican. 57% told CNN pollsters they were voting against El-Sayed, up from 41% in a previous poll.
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Rogers’ favorability has also taken a hit, moving from 58% in September to 50% in October.
Texas
Texas State Rep. James Talarico also built upon a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, despite Talarico’s extended absence from the campaign trail in early October.
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49% of likely voters told pollsters they’d vote for Talarico while 43% said they would vote for Paxton, according to the poll.
Texas, a state that voted for exactly one new Democratic Senate candidate into office since Lyndon B. Johnson vacated his seat to become Vice President, also voted more strongly for Trump in 2024 than in either of his previous elections.
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Left: Texas state Rep. James Talarico, who is running for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Right: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running for the Republican nomination. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images; Nick Wagner/AP Photo)
Despite the typically steadfast support for the GOP in the Lone Star State, Talarico is riding a wave of favorability and minority support to remain in pole position five days before polls close.
CNN’s poll says 64% of likely voters of color support Talarico, including 22% of the cohort that voted for Trump in 2024.
Talarico is also leading Paxton in favorability within their own parties. 24% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Paxton, according to the poll. Just 2% of Democrats, meanwhile, view Talarico unfavorably.
Kansas
In Kansas, a state which Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., is falling behind Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton.
49% of likely voters say they support Hamilton, 45% say they support Marshall.
Hamilton, a relatively unknown candidate, is far outperforming his own party in a state where Democrats are broadly unfavorable. 57% of voters view the Democratic Party as unfavorable while only 38% of them feel the same about Hamilton.
Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., during a Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026. (Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Like Republicans in Michigan, likely voters in Kansas appear to be more highly motivated by a dislike for one candidate than strong positive feelings for another. 59% of Hamilton backers say they’re motivated by opposition to Marshall.
Hamilton, a Christian pastor, is even drawing support from across the aisle. Roughly 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning likely voters say they support Hamilton, according to the poll.
Senior pastor Adam Hamilton spoke during “Heritage” services at 7:45 a.m. on Sunday, Sept. 16, 2012, in Wesley Covenant Chapel at the Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, Kan. (Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
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CNN conducted its polling via telephone between Oct. 20 and Oct. 27. Registered voters were randomly sampled, according to the outlet. 838 likely voters were considered in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan and and 923 in Texas. CNN tabulated its margins of sampling error at plus or minus 4.5% for Kansas and Maine, 4.7% in Michigan and 4.2% in Texas.
Digital contacted all eight campaigns for further comment.
