China plots major move south of the border as auto exec shares grim outlook for industry

China’s auto juggernaut is setting its sights on America — and it may not have to cross the US border to get dangerously close.

Nissan Americas Chairman Christian Meunier expects Chinese automakers to start building cars in Mexico within two to three years, putting Chinese production within striking distance of the US market just as Washington scrambles to keep Chinese vehicles and technology out.

Meunier says Nissan is already moving aggressively to slash costs in Mexico before the Chinese arrive, admitting the company’s current cost and supply structure isn’t good enough to compete with BYD.

He also described China’s advance through Latin America as “a big, fast invasion.”

Mexico is already a major beachhead. Chinese vehicles accounted for one-third of new-car sales there in 2024, according to a July 2026 report from the Office of the US Trade Representative — up from just 4% in 2020.

And China has plenty of metal to unload.

Chinese factories can produce 55 million vehicles a year, while the country’s domestic market absorbs roughly 25 million, the report said. That leaves enormous manufacturing capacity looking for customers.

Mexico could be the obvious staging ground. Chinese-built vehicles sold there face a 50% tariff, but manufacturing locally would help companies avoid that barrier.

Washington, meanwhile, is trying to slam the brakes on any Chinese advance into the US.

Chinese electric vehicles already face a 100% US tariff. Federal connected-vehicle restrictions also target automakers owned or controlled by China or Russia, beginning with vehicles for the 2027 model year and extending to certain hardware in 2030.

Now lawmakers want those restrictions permanently cemented.

Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) are pushing the Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026, which would bar the import, manufacture and sale of connected vehicles, software and hardware linked to China, Russia or North Korea.

The Senate Commerce Committee approved the measure unanimously in July, but a September attempt to move it stalled. The bill faces a narrow window to clear the House and reach the president’s desk before the end of the year, or the legislative process would have to start over.

The biggest fight may be over whether Chinese companies get another route in: building cars on American soil.

President Donald Trump said in September he would accept Chinese companies opening US factories.

Slotkin fired back that doing so would be “the beginning of the end of auto manufacturing in the United States.”

The trade group representing Ford, General Motors and Stellantis has also opposed the idea.

Other executives are bracing for the same threat.

Hyundai CEO Jose Munoz warned that the US market could come to resemble Britain’s or Europe’s if barriers fall, while Ford CEO Jim Farley has said he expects Chinese brands to enter the US within five to 10 years.

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