Cancer diagnoses worldwide are expected to climb to 35 million annually by 2050, up from 20.6 million in 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a new report.
Despite major progress in some areas — like decreased tobacco use that’s associated with 16 types of cancer — cancer is still a leading cause of death and disability.
WHO is sounding the alarm that health systems around the world aren’t doing enough to curb exploding cancer rates.
Only 12 countries are on track to reduce premature cancer deaths by a third by 2030. Meanwhile, 48 countries have rising death rates from cancer, according to the report.
About one in five people will get cancer in their lifetime. The most common types for men are lung and prostate cancer, respectively; for women, it’s breast and lunch cancer. Colorectal cancer is third most common for both sexes.
Cancer is also the leading cause of death after heart disease. Approximately one in nine men and one in 13 women will die from cancer before the age of 75 years old, according to the report.
Asia makes up more than half of the global cancer burden, which makes sense when 60% of the world’s population lives there. Europe has disproportionately high cancer rates, representing 21% of global cancer, and North America follows at 11%, the report said.
But there’s still hope to reverse the trend. Research shows up to 40% of cancers can be prevented.
“The inequities documented in this report are not inevitable; they are the consequence of choices, and they can be reversed through stronger and unified action,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO.
“Achieving these shifts will require us all to play our part. The choices we make now and in the coming years will shape the burden and the experience of cancer for years to come.”
Why cancer cases will go up
Rising cancer rates go hand in hand with rising risk factors.
While many countries have decreased tobacco use, improved diet and increased HPV vaccinations (protecting from cervical cancer), factors like alcohol use, excess body weight and physical inactivity either aren’t improving or actively getting worse, the WHO report states.
“Reducing exposure to established risk factors … remains one of the most powerful levers for impact,” said Dr. Elisabete Weiderpass, Director of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
But it’s also about less death from other causes. People are living longer, and age is the single greatest risk factor for developing cancer.
More than half of cancer cases happen in people 65 and older. And the world is aging: By 2050, the proportion of the world’s population over 60 years will nearly double from 2015, jumping from 12% to 22%.
Why it’s worse in some countries than others
WHO says that diagnosis, screening, and diagnostic resources are not improving enough, while most treatments and supportive care are also lagging behind around the world.
This means it’s harder and more expensive for patients to access the care they need.
Cancer is costly. Even in countries with universal health care, there are costs associated with lost income after a patient leaves their job, problems with housing, and of course, medical treatment and caregiving costs.
About half of patients and their families experience catastrophic health expenditures, according to the report. By 2050, WHO estimates the cumulative global economic cost of cancer will surpass $33.2 trillion. That’s about the entirety of the US GDP.
How to reverse the trend
WHO says the most urgent need is for investment in low and middle income countries, which are facing limited resources and higher cancer rates.
They call for “comprehensive, integrated approaches” rather than disease-specific interventions. They criticize huge sums of money, largely spent in higher income countries, prioritizing “cutting-edge high-cost treatments that deliver only marginal clinical benefits.”
WHO points to what we know works. Their guidelines for tobacco control contributed to a 27% reduction of tobacco use since 2010. HPV vaccines are up to 31% among girls, from 17% in 2019.
“While we are seeing reductions in some cancer rates in countries that have implemented prevention policies, progress has been too slow,” said Weiderpass. “The cancer profile is evolving, increasingly driven by rising rates of obesity, physical inactivity, unhealthy diets, and air pollution. Cancer prevention must remain a political priority.”
WHO recommends first that countries keep better data on cancer in their populations so they can better measure impact and know which resources need more attention. Then, invest, make changes, and collaborate with the international research and policy community.
“Cancer affects all societies, but its burden is not borne equally,” Weiderpass said. This report calls for renewed commitment to ensuring that advances in knowledge and care benefit everyone, everywhere.”
