California governor race odds swing wildly after snoozy debate

The debate last night for California’s governor’s race may have given progressive billionaire Tom Steyer an edge, according to traders — while a once-surging candidate could face a drop-off.

The roughly hour-and-half-long debate was the first one after former congressman Eric Swalwell dropped his bid due to sexual assault allegations.

While the public anticipated clashes that would give clarity to who would come out on top, the event didn’t appear to ruffle many feathers.

On the post-debate betting market, though, a trend is emerging in favor of Steyer, and questions are emerging over whether former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra can continue his momentum.

Earlier in the month, when rumors of accusations against Swalwell were swirling, the odds for Steyer skyrocketed on the betting platform Kalshi, as many expected him and former congresswoman Katie Porter to pick up most of Swalwell’s voters.

But recent polls showed instead Becerra, who had been mired in the single digits, shooting to the top of the pack alongside Steyer.

One poll had Becerra jumping to 15% support — an 11-point surge from just 4% earlier this month and tied with Steyer.

Bettors adjusted accordingly, and right before the debate, the two Democrats’ odds were about the same at around 38%.

Momentum was shifting to Becerra, who appeared poised to pick up support from political operatives in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s orbit.

The dark horse candidate was set to capitalize on the surge in the debate, but observers thought he didn’t come off as strong. In one instance, Becerra incorrectly suggested Trump recently started a war with Iraq instead of Iran.

“Ironically enough, though, if you’re a Democratic legislator or donor, he clearly came across as the safest choice,” Dan Schnur, a teacher of political communications at USC and UC Berkeley, told the Post.

Bettors seemed to agree on the lackluster performance. After the debate, Becerra’s odds dropped a relatively large seven points down to 33%. Steyer only dropped one point, now at 37%.

The lower-polling San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan saw the biggest odds boost from the debate, increasing by seven points to 16%.

Becerra, who also is a former state attorney general, did not seem too concerned about any momentum disappearing. He shared news after debate day that his campaign just saw its biggest fundraising day ever, with a $350,000 haul from 7,500 people, of whom 80% are first-time donators.

“This is what a people-powered campaign looks like. If you’re ready for a fighter in the governor’s office, join us,” Becerra said.

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