California voters are getting a jump on Election Day — with almost a million additional ballots already cast compared with the eve of the last midterm election.
More than 6.4 million ballots had been cast as of Sunday, according to the California Secretary of State’s latest report, surpassing the roughly 5.47 million recorded the day before the November 2022 election.
That’s about 934,000 additional ballots, a 17.1% increase — even with this year’s snapshot taken two days before Tuesday’s election rather than one.
Pollster Paul Mitchell, of Political Data Inc, said his tracking shows an even larger increase.
California’s early voting is running “well over” 2022 levels, with roughly 1.2 million to 1.3 million additional ballots returned compared with the same stage of the last midterm election, Mitchell told The California Post.
Mitchell cautioned that his figures and the secretary of state’s totals use different reporting cutoffs. County processing and reporting can lag by about a day, complicating comparisons between election cycles.
Even Los Angeles County is ahead of its 2022 pace, Mitchell said, despite that year’s competitive mayoral contest featuring Rick Caruso, whose candidacy helped draw Republican voters but ended in defeat.
Mitchell said Los Angeles County’s returns were up roughly 70,000 ballots compared with the corresponding point in 2022, with the share of registered voters who had returned ballots about 2 percentage points higher.
The makeup of the early electorate is also shifting, he said, pointing to a substantial increase in Latino participation statewide.
At the top of the ballot this year, longtime Democrat politician Xavier Becerra faces Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, in the race to succeed termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom.
In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass is seeking a second term against City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a former ally challenging her from the left, with homelessness, housing costs and preparations for the 2028 Olympics among the central issues.
The latest total from the secretary of state’s office includes 6,107,024 returned mail ballots and 299,137 ballots cast in person, according to the state’s VoteCal report, which compiles information supplied by California’s 58 counties.
Mail ballot returns remained below the roughly 8.1 million reported on the eve of the 2024 presidential election. That year, the secretary of state’s Monday update showed 8,058,584 returned mail ballots, according to a contemporaneous report by Patch.
This year’s mail ballot tally was about 24% lower, although its reporting cutoff was a day earlier in the election cycle.
Across California, the state’s latest figures show sharp geographic differences.
Los Angeles County accounted for nearly 1.4 million ballots, more than a fifth of the statewide total. Its participation rate, measured against voters issued mail ballots, stood at 23.45%, below the statewide figure of 27.32%.
San Diego County reported 694,363 ballots, or 34.03%, followed by Orange County with 600,796 ballots and a rate of 31.16%. Riverside County recorded 372,661 ballots, or 25.45%.
Some of the smallest counties posted the highest participation rates.
Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters
California Post News: Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X, YouTube, WhatsApp, LinkedIn
California Post Sports Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, X
California Post Opinion
California Post Newsletters: Sign up here!
California Post App: Download here!
Home delivery: Sign up here!
Page Six Hollywood: Sign up here!
Sierra County led at 47.99%, with 1,050 ballots cast, followed by Plumas County at 46.88%. Imperial County had the lowest rate at 16.61%.
Mail ballots accounted for about 95% of the statewide early tally, but millions of voters returned them without using the postal service.
More than 3 million arrived by mail, while nearly 2.7 million were deposited in drop boxes. Another roughly 396,000 were returned at designated drop-off locations or vote centers.
Counties had accepted 99.07% of returned mail ballots.
The state cautions that its figures reflect county reports at a specific point in time.
On Monday, the Trump administration made a last-ditch plea to the Supreme Court, asking the justices to force California to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots it claims were sent to noncitizens.
Voters can still cast ballots in person or return completed mail ballots to official drop-off locations until 8 p.m. Tuesday.
