California Democrats are facing a nightmarish scenario in the 2026 governor’s race as new internal polling shows two Republicans — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — leading the field in the June 2 primary election.
Democratic Party officials held a news conference Tuesday releasing the results of a survey to sound the alarm, as only the top two finalists advance out of the jungle primary.
“This initial survey shows two Republicans in the lead, with multiple Democrats trailing behind,” state Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks said.
“These results confirm the possibility, albeit a low one, the possibility of Democrats being locked out of the general election.”
He added, “It’s yet another reminder of the undeniable fact that all candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win, and I continue to call for them to do so.”
Democratic insiders have expressed panic over the crowded field potentially leading to Hilton and Bianco facing off in the runoff, which would make way for the first Republican governor of California since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.
The survey — conducted in mid-March among 2,000 likely voters — comes after the cancellation of Tuesday night’s gubernatorial debate at USC following Democratic legislators and candidates of color expressing outrage about the lack of diversity.
Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters
California Post News: Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X, YouTube, WhatsApp, LinkedIn
California Post Sports Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, X
California Post Opinion
California Post Newsletters: Sign up here!
California Post App: Download here!
Home delivery: Sign up here!
Page Six Hollywood: Sign up here!
Along with Hilton and Bianco, the three leading Democratic candidates in the race who were set to take part — Rep. Eric Swalwell, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former congresswoman Katie Porter — are all white.
Other candidates in the race were furious when San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is also white, was the sixth and final candidate included in the USC debate despite polling lower than former U.S. Secretary of Health Xavier Becerra. Mahan’s campaign has substantial financial backing from big tech players.
Other Democrats who are still running despite polling in single-digits include former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former state controller Betty Yee.
Poll results from the Democratic Party showed Hilton and Bianco leading with 16% and 14% of the vote, respectively. Swalwell, Porter and Steyer were tied at 10%. Becerra, Villaraigosa and Mahan each registered 3%, as Yee (2%) and Thurmond (1%) rounded out the results.
Hilton not only has the strongest overall polling numbers but also had the largest share of partisan support among the candidates, getting the nod from 41% of Republicans to Banco’s 34%. Porter edged Swalwell with the strongest share of support from identifying Democrats, getting 17% support to his 16%.
Other interesting findings in the poll found that 52% of those surveyed said they believe California is headed in the wrong direction, while just a third of respondents said the state is headed in the right direction.
“Democrats have to do something,” said Larry Geraston, professor emeritus of political science at San José State University. “What you’re looking at is a party with the total capability to self-destruct. They don’t understand how easy it is for that dividsiveness to lead to two Republicans running in November.”
Hicks, who changed course in a matter of weeks from saying the party would let the process play out to then calling on low-polling Democratic candidates to drop out of the race, stopped short of naming specific candidates Tuesday.
“There’s 70 days to go until election day, 40 days until ballots are in the hands of voters,” Hicks said. “We are prepared to do what is required to ensure that we elect a governor in November of 2026.”
He later added, “Would I prefer not to put forward a survey that showed two Republicans leading? Of course.”
Tommy Vietor, a co-host for the left-leaning podcast Pod Save America, called the situation a “mess” on social media Tuesday morning.
“The CA Democratic Party needs to get together ASAP and put a tent on this circus,” Vietor wrote. “The primary is in June. Ballots start getting mailed May 4th. Candidates who aren’t above 5% in the polls by April 15th need to drop out and endorse someone else to narrow the field.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom has yet to endorse anyone in the race, and Hicks seemed non-committal when asked if the governor should put his thumb on the scale in pressuring out low-polling candidates.
“I think that’s a decision for the governor,” Hicks said. “And as far as the timing, only time will tell.”
