California billionaire tax faces spectacular collapse in bombshell new poll

The billionaires appear to be winning.

California voters remain closely divided over a proposed wealth tax on billionaires to backfill federal health care cuts, but just 46% of likely voters are supporting it and 43% are opposed, according to a new Citrin Center-Politico poll.

Proposition 40 needs a majority of voter support to raise as much as $100 billion by imposing a one-time 5% tax on state residents who had assets exceeding $1 billion at the start of 2026. With just 15 days until the election, it may need a late surge of support from the roughly 10% of likely voters who remain undecided.

A billionaire boys’ club is spending big to keep California’s hands off its fortunes, with Google co-founder Sergey Brin leading the charge with more than $100 million of his own money.

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt — who at one point was furious about billionaires taking their eye off the ball in defeating the wealth tax — and cryptocurrency mogul Chris Larsen have joined him with eight-figure contributions.

A separate Public Policy Institute poll conducted last month found the billionaire tax narrowly leading, with 52% of likely voters backing the tax plan.

In total, opponents of the billionaire tax have raised well north of $300 million to fight Prop. 40 and support other state ballot measures, including Propositions 41 and 42, designed to erect barriers against wealth taxes.

If Prop. 42 receives more votes than Prop. 40 and both pass, it would override the billionaire tax.

By comparison, the union behind the billionaire tax — Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West — has raised and spent approximately $40 million on the measure. That would be a formidable war chest in most statewide ballot measure fights, but this one targets some of the richest people in the world.

SEIU-UHW’s push has also been dogged by allegations against its president, Dave Regan, who was accused of trying to strong-arm fellow labor leaders into endorsing the measure and threatening and intimidating women within the union.

Labor investigations substantiated several allegations, including an account that he physically assaulted former SEIU executive Courtni Pugh in 2009. Pugh is now working on behalf of the billionaires to defeat Prop. 40.

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Regan and the union denied wrongdoing, calling the accusations a politically motivated attack tied to their campaign.

Suzanne Jimenez, chief of staff for SEIU-UHW, said the fact that the billionaire tax had more support than opposition — despite not clearing the 50% threshold — shows that “Prop. 40 is winning” and “California voters would rather keep emergency rooms open than give even more tax breaks to billionaires .”

“Any sober and objective reading of this poll shows it as good news for the billionaire tax — because the 11% undecided will break in favor of prop 40,” Jimenez said in a statement to The California Post. “It is an incredible and powerful statement that despite Prop 40 supporters being outspent by hundreds of millions of dollars, every single independent poll in this campaign has shown the billionaire tax prevailing.”

She added, “It’s time for billionaires to pay their fair share and this poll shows once again that California voters want veterans, children, and seniors to have access to healthcare more than they want billionaires to have access to more yachts and mansions.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom and his likely successor, Democrat Xavier Becerra, have both come out against the proposed wealth tax, arguing it should be done at the national level.

A source in the anti-Prop. 40 camp told The California Post that its internal polling suggests the wealth tax may be in even bigger trouble because of expectations of weak voter turnout and other findings that suggest voters are not connecting with the measure.

The Citrin-Politico poll found marked differences in how people view the billionaire tax based on age and gender.

Younger voters were far more eager to tax the ultrawealthy: 64% of likely voters ages 18 to 29 and 62% of those ages 30 to 44 backed the measure. Meanwhile, those 65 and older supported the measure at just 28%.

Women favored the wealth tax 49% to 39%, while men leaned against it with 47% opposed and 43% in support.

Two-thirds of registered voters lacked confidence that the supposedly one-time tax would stay that way. And 56% found the warning that it could eventually expand beyond billionaires a convincing reason to vote no.

However, 58% were convinced that billionaires could afford to contribute more without raising other Californians’ taxes, while 57% found the promise of funding health care and other public services persuasive.

The threat of a billionaire exodus carving into state revenue was not as persuasive, as just 44% found that to be a compelling argument against the tax, while 51% did not.

The online voter survey was conducted Oct. 9-14 with the Citrin Center at UC Berkeley and Politico. It included 1,149 registered voters, including 909 likely voters. The report provided no margin of error.

Mail-in ballots have already gone out to California voters and the election will conclude Nov. 3.