Played on coastal links courses across the pond, golf’s oldest major is defined by unpredictability. No tournament on the calendar is more vulnerable to the whims of the weather, making the race for the Claret Jug as volatile as any event in the sport.
That volatility has produced its share of surprise champions. Six of the last 16 Open winners teed off at odds of 80/1 or longer, including Brian Harman, who stunned the field as a 125/1 long shot in 2023.
Of course, plenty of favorites have lifted the Claret Jug over that stretch, too, so separating contenders from pretenders is all about identifying players whose games fit the conditions.
Before we get to the picks, here’s a quick look at the course and the forecast.
Royal Birkdale, perched on the coast of the Irish Sea, hosts this year’s championship. Like every Open venue, it is at the mercy of Mother Nature, but few courses are exposed to the elements quite like this iconic layout in Merseyside. With little shelter from the coastal winds, conditions can change in an instant. However, the early forecast looks relatively tame, with only occasional 15-mph gusts expected.
The last time that Royal Birkdale hosted the tournament was in 2017 when Jordan Spieth won at 12-under par. That leaderboard produced a few surprising names, including third-place finisher Haotong Li and an unheralded Englishman (we’re foreshadowing here) who finished T6.
Now, let’s get to the betting card, as we look to build on our momentum after nailing Tom Kim at 85/1 last week at the Scottish Open.
2026 British Open best bets, predictions, props
Top of the board
Cameron Young (33/1, FanDuel) & Viktor Hovland (34/1, DraftKings)
Two picks for the price of one among the headliners this week.
Cameron Young was the best golfer in the world for the first half of the season, but his cold snap since winning the Cadillac Championship at the end of April has caused his odds to tumble a bit. That’s good news for us, as we get a solid price on a player who has a runner-up and a T8 in four trips to the British Open in his career.
Hovland’s number also feels like a gift considering his recent form. He won at the Travelers at the end of June, and then was T13 at the Scottish Open last week. The Norwegian has finished 13th or better in three of his five starts at the Open.
Sleeper
Min Woo Lee (55/1, BetMGM)
For some reason, Min Woo Lee seems to struggle at major championships. The Australian has missed the cut in nine of 20 attempts at winning a Grand Slam, and he’s only got one top-10 finish, which came back at the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.
It’s an odd phenomenon, because Lee profiles as a player who should be in the mix at the biggest stops on the PGA Tour. He’s won all around the world, and he’s regularly around the leaderboard at some of the toughest tournaments on the circuit.
The upshot is that Lee’s disappearing act at majors is allowing us to get a great price on a player that just finished second at the Scottish Open, which is played 230 miles north of Royal Birkdale.
Lee, who also has a win at the Scottish Open, has four top-10 finishes in 2026.
Lotto ticket
Matthew Southgate (2,500/1, DraftKings)
Yes, that says 2,500-to-1. Let me explain.
Matthew Southgate is a links-golf specialist with three top-25 finishes in six trips to the Open Championship, including a T6 in 2017 when the tournament was hosted by, you guessed it, Royal Birkdale.
Southgate rides into the week with some positive momentum after qualifying for the tournament on Monday. He also won a Challenger Tour event last month.
If betting Southgate to win the Claret Jug is a bridge too far, you can get 62/1 on a top-10 finish and 26/1 on a top-20 at DraftKings.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
