Bombshell new poll shows huge swing in California governor’s race

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra has opened up a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton just weeks after the pair advanced from California’s primary, according to a new poll.

The survey from the Public Policy Institute of California found Becerra leading Hilton by 25 percentage points, with 61% of likely voters backing the former health secretary compared to 36% for the ex-Fox News host turned Republican candidate.

The results mark a dramatic shift from California’s June 2 blanket primary, when Becerra finished first with about 28.1% of the vote and Hilton followed closely behind with roughly 24.7%.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates advanced to the Nov. 3 general election regardless of party affiliation after incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom was barred from seeking another term because of term limits.

The PPIC poll suggests Becerra has since consolidated support from Democratic voters who backed other candidates in the crowded primary, including billionaire Tom Steyer, who narrowly missed advancing to the general election.

Becerra won across almost every major voting bloc surveyed. The poll found he led Hilton across age groups, genders, homeowners and renters, income levels, racial and ethnic groups, as well as every major region of the state.

Support remained overwhelmingly partisan, with 93% of Democratic likely voters backing Becerra and 90% of Republicans supporting Hilton. Independent voters also favored the Democrat by a wide margin, with 60% supporting Becerra compared with 34% for Hilton.

The survey found environmental policy could play a pivotal role in November.

About 85% of likely voters said the gubernatorial candidates’ positions on environmental issues are important when deciding their vote, including 48% who described them as “very important.”

Democrats were significantly more likely than Republicans to prioritize the issue, with 60% calling it very important compared with 29% of Republicans and 44% of independents.

The findings come as California continues grappling with devastating wildfires, climate change concerns and debates over environmental regulations — issues expected to feature prominently throughout the general election campaign.

The poll also showed Democrats maintaining a sizable advantage in California’s congressional races. When asked about their local US House contests, 63% of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate, while 35% backed the Republican candidate, a result that has remained largely unchanged since earlier PPIC surveys this year.

The survey also found Californians remain far more favorable toward Newsom than President Donald Trump on environmental issues. About half of likely voters approved of Newsom’s handling of environmental policy, while just one in four approved of Trump’s performance. 

The survey of 1,578 California adults, including 1,003 likely voters, was conducted in English and Spanish between June 29 and July 6 as California’s general election campaign begins to take shape ahead of the Nov. 3 vote.

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