Once Jannik Sinner was eliminated, the 2026 French Open became Alexander Zverev’s to lose.
Zverev, still without a Grand Slam title on his mantel, has taken advantage of the opportunity thus far. With Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and longtime nemesis Daniil Medvedev all out of the picture, the German has looked a couple of steps above the rest of the field and has only dropped one set in his first five matches.
He’s a -410 favorite to take out Jakub Mensik and make it to his second final at Roland Garros in the last three years.
French Open: Zverev vs. Mensik odds, prediction
There are a couple of rising stars in men’s tennis that have everyone’s attention right now: Rafael Jodar of Spain and Joao Fonseca of Brazil. Mensik, 20, should not be overlooked.
Although he may not have the flash and dash of Jodar and Fonseca, he’s already developed into one of the best servers on the ATP.
Mensik has the fifth-most aces on tour this season, and he’s won 78.6 percent of points on his first serve, the fourth-best mark in the circuit.
That serve gives Mensik a chance against any opponent, but it also provides a platform to take Zverev out of his comfort zone.
The path to the upset for the Czech is to draw Zverev away from the baseline with efficient serving and drop shots, and if he’s got his best weapon with him on Friday, he should be able to do that enough to hang around in this match.
The issue is that Mensik has played a ton of tennis in Paris. The 20-year-old can often play quick sets because of how many quick points he wins with his serve, but he’s played a couple of five-setters and has spent about four more hours on court than Zverev. That’s essentially one extra match played, and it makes it hard to back the underdog to win this one outright.
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Instead, we’ll focus on the total, as the stylistic matchup and the intangibles should make this a roller coaster.
Zverev’s form has been imperious, but he’s going to be pushed here. And given his history of struggling in the big moments, this match is a good bet to go the distance.
The Play: Over 4.5 sets (+280, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
