One of the most bizarre Grand Slams in a generation will conclude on Sunday when World No. 3 Alexander Zverev takes on No. 14 Flavio Cobolli in the French Open Final at Roland Garros.
Zverev, considered the best active men’s tennis player never to win a Grand Slam, is a -378 favorite to break his maiden.
Cobolli, who had been to just one Grand Slam quarterfinal in his career before this iteration of the French Open, is +290 to lift the trophy.
Zverev vs. Cobolli odds, prediction
There are two different battles going on in this final.
The first is what is happening on the court between two familiar opponents. Zverev is the more complete player, but Cobolli is a chore to deal with thanks to his power from the baseline and aggressive approach. The Italian has also shown some more versatility to his game during this clay-court season, which Zverev saw firsthand when he was defeated by the 24-year-old at ATP Munich in April.
Zverev wouldn’t have to wait long for his revenge, as he made quick work of Cobolli at the Madrid Masters the following week.
Both of these players can get ahead with their first serve and do their best work when they’re on the front foot, but Zverev owns the more polished toolkit. He’s clearly the best player on the ATP Tour this side of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, and he comes into this Final in tremendous form.
Zverev has won 34 of 43 matches this season, and five of those defeats came against Sinner or Alcaraz, while Cobolli accounted for one of the others.
The other battle is the mental side of this encounter.
Zverev now faces his best opportunity to get over the hump and win a Grand Slam. The 29-year-old is 0-3 in Grand Slam Finals and is tied with David Ferrer for the most wins at Roland Garros (44) without winning the event.
For all his talent, Zverev seems to implode at the worst time and has made a habit of squandering away advantageous positions in semifinals and finals at majors.
Those demons will be tough to stare down, especially against a player who can thrive off of momentum like Cobolli.
Zverev’s form has been imperious in Paris, but he’s no stranger to throwing up a dud out of nowhere, and I don’t think this will be close to a walk in the park for him. Things will get nervy. And Cobolli should be well rested after getting a walkover against Matteo Arnaldi in the semifinal.
Cobolli is unlikely to be able to play Zverev off the court, but I do think he’s shown an ability to play grinding tennis during this fortnight and that makes him dangerous. The longer he hangs around, the heavier Zverev’s shoulders will feel with his close-but-no-cigar history.
The Play: Cobolli to win in 5 sets (+850, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
