California voters have revealed their top picks for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary — and Gov. Gavin Newsom didn’t even crack the top two, according to a new poll commissioned by the California Post.
Golden State voters were asked who they’d vote for in a Democratic presidential primary if the election were held today, and the results showed a Dem from the opposite coast as the most popular pick.
Newsom, who earned tepid approval ratings in the poll, ranked third.
New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was the most popular choice in the poll, with 18% of respondents saying they’d choose her in a primary held today. She was closely followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 17%.
The California governor won just 14% of the vote share, while former Vice President Kamala Harris — who was a California senator and attorney general before that — ranked fifth at 7%. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly was favored by 10% of respondents.
The statewide poll by McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 800 voters across California from Oct. 17 to 20 with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. Of those, 419 respondents weighed in on the Democratic primary question.
“Both Newsom and Harris have not locked up the what would you call the progressive or the very liberal vote, and and and they’ve got competition for it — stiff competition from AOC and from Buttigieg for that,” McLaughlin said in an interview.
“Also, you need a demographic base because the majority of Democrat primary voters are minority voters, whether they be Hispanic or African American or Asian or women,” he added.
The lefty Bronx congresswoman dominated among voters who identified as “liberal” or “very liberal,” winning 25% and 41% of respondents, respectively, who described themselves as such.
Voters were lukewarm on Newsom’s job performance, with 47% approving of his work as governor and 50% disapproving, including 41% who cited “strong” disapproval. Independent voters were especially likely to dislike Newsom’s performance, with 62% disapproving.
Fifty-six percent of California voters said they state was on the wrong track, with economic issues — including cost of living, budget and taxes, housing costs and healthcare costs — overwhelmingly cited as the top factor in their sour outlook.
Respondents were provided a list of names often discussed as presidential contenders, including Ocasio-Cortez, Buttigieg, Newsom, Kelly and Harris.
Also on the list were Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who polled at 3%; Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker at 3%; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 2%; former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel at 1%; and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 1%. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and commentator Stephen A. Smith were also mentioned as options, but didn’t receive any support in the poll.
Twenty-three percent were undecided.
Jeff Jenkins, a provost professor of Public Policy, Political Science, and Law at University of Southern California, emphasized that it’s very early for 2028 presidential polling. With so much that could change between now and then, he said there’s limited information to learn from polls at this point.
“That said, I think it is interesting that Newsom in particular isn’t doing better — because if polls are tracking anything right now, it would be name recognition,” Jenkins said.
“That doesn’t bode well for him. By contract, I think few see Harris as a serious candidate, so I’m not surprised by her tally,” he added.
The California Post’s poll results seem to reflect other recent surveys the state, which suggest that enthusiasm for a potential Newsom and Harris presidential bids may have waned.
A September poll by UC Berkeley Citrin Center and POLITICO, for instance, saw 37% of California Dems excited for a Newsom run and 28% for Harris. That was a significant decrease from March when more than 40% of California voters said they were excited for them to run.
National polls paint a somewhat different picture: Three polls conducted in October, for instance, all show Harris leading the pack of potential candidates with 20% to 30% of the vote share. Newsom placed second in all three, hovering around 15%.
“They have national name ID, many of these other candidates don’t,” McLaughlin said.
Both California Democrats have been making the rounds in key primary states to not only campaign for Democrat politicians but also market themselves to a more national audience. Newsom and Harris have openly acknowledged they are considering White House runs.
Most recently, the governor was in New Hampshire, while Harris will reportedly be in Wisconsin and Georgia later this month.
The Post reached out to offices for both Newsom and Harris for comment.
