The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted 17 House races Wednesday in response to redistricting, primary elections and congressional scandals.
Nine of the organization’s race-ratings changes were made in Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a new GOP-friendly congressional map into law earlier this week.
On balance, the Florida changes help the GOP’s bottom line in the House, according to the the Center for Politics.
The Sunshine State’s 14th Congressional District, held by Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Fla.), has shifted from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican.”
Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-Fla.) 9th District has gone from “Likely Democratic” to “Likely Republican.”
Florida’s new 22nd and 25th congressional districts have also been shifted from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican” and “Toss-up,” respectively.
Districts held by GOP Reps. Gus Bilirakis, Cory Mills, Maria Elvira Salazar and Vern Buchanan (who is retiring) have all shifted from safe to likely GOP seats.
Last week, the Center for Politics formally shifted four Virginia House districts from toss-up or safe or likely Republican to leans or likely Democratic in response to the state’s redistricting plan approved by voters.
Tuesday night’s elections in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana also prompted shifts, largely benefitting Democrats.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, held by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), has shifted from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.”
The move is significant because Kaptur’s district was redrawn in October 2025, making it more GOP-friendly ahead of the midterms.
Kaptur narrowly won reelection in 2024 against Republican Derek Merrin, and November’s contest will be a rematch.
Rep. Max Miller’s (R-Ohio) 7th District was also downgraded from safe to likely Republican, with the Center for Politics noting the lawmaker’s “ugly divorce and child custody batte” with his ex-wife, who is the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).
Similarly, reports of a House Ethics Committee investigation into Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC), who is facing allegations of sexual misconduct, prompted the election handicapper to shift North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District from likely to leans Republican.
Scandal-scarred former Rep. Tony Gonzales’ (R-Texas) vacant 23rd District seat in Texas was also moved from safe to likely Republican.
Elsewhere, Rep. Frank Mrvan’s (D-Ind.) 1st District seat in the Hoosier state has gone from leans to likely Democratic; Rep. Bill Huizenga’s (R-Mich.) 4th District seat in the Wolverine State has gone from likely to leans Republican; Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet’s (D-Mich.) 8th District was shifted from leans to likely Democratic; and Rep. Brad Finstad (R-Minn.) 1st District seat in Minnesota has gone from safe to likely Republican.
“Our overall House ratings show 213 districts rated as Safe, Likely or Leans Democratic, 207 rated Safe, Likely or Leans Republican, and 15 rated as Toss-ups,” the Center for Politics noted.
