Wednesday night will be a tight turnaround for Wake Forest after securing a 95-89 overtime win over Virginia Tech Tuesday in the first round of the ACC playoffs.
Wake draws the well-rested Clemson Tigers as 5.5-point road ‘dogs only a few weeks after upsetting them 79-76 at home.
Clemson has been preparing for this game since it finished its regular season on Saturday with a 79-76 victory over Georgia Tech.
First off, let’s not let the previous meeting mislead us. There were several outlier factors in play, starting with Wake shooting 45.5 percent from beyond the arc and both teams taking 24-plus free throws and shooting 60-plus percent from inside the arc.
It produced 162 points, which is not a pace I’m expecting to be replicated here.
Clemson vs. Wake Forest odds, prediction
Aside from the fact that tournament history supports rested teams in the second leg of back-to-backs, the Demon Deacons rotation is already wearing thin. There were seven players who cracked double-digit points on Tuesday, although Juke Harris, Myles Colvin and Tre’Von Spillers are the engine to this offense and must produce on their short rest against an elite defense.
The Tigers, who are No. 20 overall in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, play one of the slowest, most controlled styles of basketball in the ACC.
Under Clemson coach Brad Brownwell, teams are forced to execute in the half court, which is a problem for a Wake Forest offense that thrives when the game is free-flowing.
Wake looks for transition opportunities along with ball screens and handoffs — two things Clemson can effectively prevent. When Wake can’t run, they become much more dependent on isolation scoring.
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They also live and die by drives and kickouts. Clemson matches that as one of the nation’s elite programs in forcing half-court possessions and defending half-court efficiency. Expect them to pack the paint, force difficult half-court jumpers and extend possessions deep into the shot clock.
Wake Forest undoubtedly has the higher scoring talent in Harris, who is sinking 21.3 per game — it’s just that he accounts for 25 percent of their scoring.
Clemson’s offense is more system-driven and can survive without one player going nuclear.
If Clemson executes by controlling the glass and slowing tempo, fatigue hitting Wake’s primary scorers points to the Tigers laying the points in the closing minutes.
THE PLAY: Clemson -5.5 (-105, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
