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As Aaron Judge continues to chase his own American League home run record of 62, we can chase the positive expected value on his home run props.
This comes when the true probability of Judge hitting a long ball is higher than what the sportsbook’s odds are implying.
Judge owns an MLB-leading 51 home runs, including two streaks of homering in four straight games.
The Yankees captain proves time and time again that when it rains, it pours.
He has hit seven home runs in his last six games, nine in his last 10 and 10 in his last 13.
Judge will face Mitchell Parker at Nationals Park when the Bombers begin a three-game set against the unfamiliar Nationals on Monday.
While Washington’s rookie pitcher is demonstrating his longevity in the rotation, he’s still working through big-league learning curves.
Parker allows 1.17 home runs per nine innings, according to FanGraphs, and has given up three over his previous three starts.
He throws his fastball 50 percent of the time, which is his most vulnerable pitch to high exit velocity, getting clocked at 95 mph or above at a 42.1 percent rate.
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Judge is enjoying a career-best against fastballs: He’s hitting .391 on them with 28 home runs.
THE PLAY: Aaron Judge Home Run (+158, FanDuel)
