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I really liked how Matthew Boyd pitched in his Cleveland debut, tossing five innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts vs. the Cubs.
Returning from Tommy John surgery isn’t easy, but Boyd flashed elite command (113 Location+ mark) of his four-pitch arsenal behind elite precision of his secondary pitches.
He posted a near-40% called strike plus whiff rate across his 80-pitch start.
Pitching against the Yankees is never easy, but I want to bet on this new-look Boyd in his second start, where he will likely be even more stretched out.
I’m also happy to bet against Yankees starter Luis Gil, whom I’ve always considered overvalued.
He enjoyed BABIP and strand luck early but has since regressed heavily, posting a 5.62 ERA over his past 10 starts.
His command issues are ever-persistent (11 percent walk rate), and I don’t love how his fastball-changeup mix plays, considering the velocity differential between the two pitches isn’t high.
Cleveland’s offense is amidst a slump, but the Guardians are still a relatively talented, patient, contact-based, pesky lineup that can expose Gil.
In the latter frames, Cleveland’s bullpen is widely known as the best in the sport, leading all teams in reliever ERA (2.67) and WAR (6.4) behind closer Emmanuel Clase (0.63 ERA, 37 saves, 57 IP) and set-up man Cade Smith (1.98 ERA, 81 strikeouts, 59 IP).
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Conversely, the Yankees’ bullpen is average at best.
THE PLAY: Guardians (+130, FanDuel)
