There was a time, not too long ago, when Hubert Hurkacz looked like a future Wimbledon winner.
Armed with size and a massive serve, the Pole’s game was built for the grass, so it wasn’t a shock that it only took three tries for Hurkacz to make his first semifinal at the All England Club in 2021.
It’s been a shaky few years since Hurkacz’s only trip to a Grand Slam semi.
He’ll look to get one step closer in a tough matchup with World No. 25 Tommy Paul on Friday morning.
Wimbledon: Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Injuries have plagued Paul this season, but when he’s been on the court, he’s generally been effective. After pulling out of Stuttgart at the beginning of June, the New Jersey native went to the final at ATP London in his most recent tournament.
He’s carried that form with him to Wimbledon, where he swept aside Alexandre Muller and Soon-woo Kwon in straight sets.
Given his skillset, which relies on speed and tenacity more than elite tools, you’d think that grass wouldn’t be Paul’s preferred surface, but he’s turned into quite an effective player on the lawn.
He owns a 31-16 record on the grass in his professional career, and he’s had some decent showings at Wimbledon, including a trip to the quarterfinals in 2024.
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A relentless worker, Paul will force you to play an extra shot and hang around in rallies, which makes him a real chore to deal with if you’re a player who wants to keep things moving. Hurkacz fits that mold.
If his serve is on point, Hurkacz can play you off the court, but if it’s even a little bit wonky, he runs into trouble because he’s not the type of player who can win matches by outlasting his opponent.
Paul has won three of four meetings between these two, and I think he’s good value to comfortably add a fourth on Friday.
The Play: Tommy Paul -1.5 sets (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
