If you’re not in a headspace to receive sensitive information then plug your ears, but the college football season is officially a third of the way through.
As hard as that is to believe, it also means that we have some significant data to draw from that will help paint a clearer picture of the landscape of college football for 2026.
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Some teams are already outperforming their preseason expectations while others are greatly disappointing thus far, as is the case with every season.
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With that, we also have four games worth of data on head coaches and where they stand on the “hot seat” conversation, so I thought it would be interesting to look at a few coaches who entered 2026 with a target on their back and how they’ve done to either improve or worsen their standing.
Think of it as a “hot seat report card.”
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With all the preamble out of the way, let’s begin.
Dave Aranda – Baylor
Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda works the sideline during the game against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the second half at Nippert Stadium on Oct. 25, 2025. (Aaron Doster/Imagn Images)
Dave Aranda’s path at Baylor has been a circuitous one, to say the least.
It was looking like a classic rags to riches story for the former LSU defensive coordinator early on, as he guided the Bears to a Big 12 championship and a 12-win season in just his second year on the job.
Since then, the results have fluctuated between middling and downright putrid, and entering this year, Aranda was said to be on his last leg.
So far, though, I don’t really think he’s done anything to change that for better or for worse, but he has set himself up nicely to buy a little more time in Waco.
Outside of a neutral site opener against Auburn, in which the Bears had a chance to win on the last play even with a hobbled DJ Lagway, Baylor has taken care of business and is 3-1 through four weeks.
Their next few conference games are winnable though not automatic, which sets up an absolutely brutal last three games where they have to play BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston, essentially the best the Big 12 has to offer.
If he can hold serve and maybe even steal one of those three games at the end of the year, I believe 8-4 or 9-3 will land Aranda in the “safe for now” category as 2026 comes to a close.
Status: Hold
Luke Fickell – Wisconsin
Head coach Luke Fickell of the Wisconsin Badgers shakes hands with head coach Matt Campbell of the Penn State Nittany Lions after the game at Beaver Stadium on Sept. 26, 2026, in State College, Pa. (Getty Images)
Coming into the season, it was basically a forgone conclusion that Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell would be gone by the end of the year; essentially a dead man walking.
After getting blasted pretty handily by Notre Dame to start the season, it looked like nothing would change, and maybe he’s still gone by the end of the year, but Saturday’s massive win on the road against a top-15 Penn State might go a long way in determining Fickell’s fate.
It was the Badgers’ first road win over a ranked opponent under Fickell, and with a more manageable schedule – Wisconsin avoids having to play Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State this season – a bowl game could be well within range for their embattled head coach.
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I’m not confident simply making a bowl game will save Fickell, but an 8-4 record is certainly on the table and I’m sure that would give boosters some pause about paying his nearly $20 million buyout.
It’s still “wait and see” for Fickell, but Saturday might have been his first attempt at digging out of a massive hole in Madison.
Status: Trending slightly up
Lincoln Riley – USC
Head coach Lincoln Riley of the USC Trojans reacts against the UCLA Bruins in the second half of a NCAA football game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles on Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025. (Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News)
This might surprise a lot of people who just paid attention to the preseason polls, but Lincoln Riley was under a lot of scrutiny heading into his fifth year in Los Angeles.
The Trojans have yet to make a College Football Playoff under Riley’s watch, causing some of the natives in Southern Cal to stir a bit.
This was seen as the year it could all come together for USC and Riley, and after holding serve the first few weeks of the season, their week four showdown with Oregon was supposed to be the first test of that theory.
Consider that test failed, as the Trojans dropped one at home to a Ducks squad playing with a backup quarterback for the majority of the contest.
Losing to a stacked Oregon team in a vacuum is nothing to hang your head about, but the fact that this was supposed to be a Playoff season for USC means the magnifying glass gets brought out after every result.
There’s still plenty of season left to get it right, but things aren’t getting any easier for Riley and the Trojans with teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, and a resurgent UCLA still on the schedule.
Until USC can wash the taste of this one out of their mouth, the temperature on Riley’s office chair will feel uncomfortably warm moving forward.
Status: Trending down
Mike Norvell – Florida State
Head Coach Mike Norvell of the Florida State Seminoles looks on before a game against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., on Nov. 29, 2025. (Getty Images)
It could be argued that no one had a hotter seat coming into 2026 than Mike Norvell, and the Florida State Seminoles didn’t exactly do anything to change that through the first third of the season.
The Noles are 2-2 through four games, and their two losses might actually be more inspiring than their two wins.
A three-point home loss to then-ranked SMU and a competitive road loss to Alabama might signify progress, but the fans in Tallahassee have long run out of patience.
Luckily for Norvell and unfortunately for those fans, they don’t make the decisions, and after firing athletic director Mike Alford a few weeks ago, the prevailing theory coming out of the Florida panhandle is that their coach is likely safe for 2026.
That might seem almost unfathomable to anyone familiar with the last few years of FSU football, but there’s still the lingering questions of Norvell’s buyout now coupled with a new AD trying to get his footing in an absolute mess of a situation.
The Seminoles still have a shot at a winning season and a bowl game, and there is some talent at spots on this roster.
I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the Noles pull a 6-6 or 7-5 season out of their hats and keep their lame duck coach in Tally for another season.
I’m sorry, FSU fans. Even you don’t deserve a fate this cruel.
Status: Hold
Shane Beamer – South Carolina
South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer takes the field with his team before a game against the Wofford Terriers at Williams-Brice Stadium on Nov. 23, 2024. (Jeff Blake/ Imagn Images)
Back in July, I wrote an article about the hot seat status of every coach in the SEC, and South Carolina coach Shane Beamer’s seat was so radioactive that it needed its own section all by itself.
Not to toot my own horn, but that is looking downright prophetic four games into the 2026 season.
The Gamecocks took care of the two scrubs on their schedule to start the year before getting their tail feathers handed to them in back to back weeks to begin SEC play.
First, the world was finally introduced to the magic of Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor, as the Bulldogs hung a 41-spot on South Carolina’s head in Williams Brice Stadium.
Then Beamer and his boys went on the road and got clobbered by Alabama to the tune of a 49-18 beatdown.
What’s worse, their best player, edge rusher Dylan Stewart, had a generational crashout on the field and was sent to the locker room with his status with the team in question, prompting many to opine whether Beamer had “lost the locker room.”
Regardless of what becomes of the Stewart situation, the schedule doesn’t lighten up at all for South Carolina.
Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Georgia all await in conference play, and the Gamecocks also have to travel to Clemson to play the Tigers to end the season.
A schedule like that presents opportunities to land some impressive wins, but it also acts as a minefield that could sink the goodship Beamer in the process.
I have a hard time seeing Beamer surviving this season barring a miracle from above.
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Status: Trending down
