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Daniil Medvedev’s 2025 season has been pretty close to a disaster.
The former World No. 1 and 2021 U.S. Open champion has won just 60 percent of his matches this season (27-18) and hasn’t won a title since the 2023 Rome Masters.
Medvedev has won just one match at a Grand Slam in 2025, and that victory saw the Russian come from 2-1 down against World No. 418 Kasidit Samrej at the Australian Open.
Since then, Medvedev has lost several matches against players ranked well outside the top 50, including to Sunday’s opponent, Benjamin Bonzi, in Round 1 at Wimbledon.
Nonetheless, Medvedev is a -450 favorite over Bonzi in Sunday’s nightcap in Queens.
US Open: Medvedev vs. Bonzi odds, prediction
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | -450 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | +333 |
As tennis analyst and host of Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross, noted, this is no blip for Medvedev anymore. He’s at a crossroads in his career and seems to be trying to do too much to battle to what appears to be a physical decline.
Medvedev has switched equipment, and he’s changed how he plays, but nothing has seemed to work, which has led to a pedestrian year for a player of his caliber.
The good news for Medvedev is that he’s going to a tournament where he’s had a ton of success. Not only did Medvedev win the trophy here in 2021, but he was a finalist in 2019 and 2023, plus he was a semifinalist in 2020.
If there was ever a place for Medvedev to shake his demons, it would be the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens.
Bonzi, meanwhile, will be buoyed with confidence after defeating Medvedev on the grass at Wimbledon.
The Frenchman has shown in his career that his A-game can be a real thorn in the side of higher-ranked opponents, but he’s not consistent enough to become a mainstay in the top 50.
He’ll also be in an uncharted territory on Sunday night, playing the nightcap at the US Open. This is a timeslot that Medvedev is very familiar with, having played several matches that end on the other side of midnight in his career.
The US Open almost always ends up as the tennis tournament with the most betting activity on the calendar, and it seems the entire world is backing Bonzi to push Medvedev, with plenty of love for the upset.
That has put some value on zagging the other way, and backing Medvedev to find his game in his happy place: Under the lights in Flushing.
The Play: Daniil Medvedev -2.5 sets (+150, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
