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Tommy Paul has a knack for flying under the radar.
There are plenty of American stars rising through the ranks in men’s tennis but, for some reason, Paul flies under the radar compared to Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe.
It may seem like Paul, 28, hasn’t had his breakthrough moment like the other stars-and-stripers, but he’s been to a Grand Slam semifinal and has four career ATP titles.
That’s an impressive haul, but evidently not enough for him to get the shine that his compatriots receive.
A deep run at the 2025 U.S. Open could change all that.
US Open: Tommy Paul vs. Nuno Borges odds, predictions
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tommy Paul | -500 |
| Nuno Borges | +350 |
Part of the reason that Paul is being overlooked at this year’s U.S. Open is because of his draw.
Not only is he staring down a potential showdown with Jannik Sinner in the Round of 16, but just getting to that point could be tricky.
The New Jersey native is a chunky -500 favorite over Nuno Borges in Round 2, but Borges has been solid this season and Paul’s form appears to be a bit iffy, with three wins from his last seven matches.
Not only is Paul’s recent W-L record unimpressive, but the quality of his opponents also puts some difficult questions ahead of the 28-year-old.
His last four losses came against Carlos Alcaraz, Dan Evans, Sebastian Ofner and Adrian Mannarino. You could certainly forgive the defeat to Alcaraz, but the other three are more difficult to look past.
Perhaps Paul was worn down after a lot of tennis during the European clay-court swing, but it’s still difficult to trust a player with those kinds of results when they are a -500 favorite against a formidable foe.
Borges is known to do his best work on clay, but he’s had some strong results throughout the year on all surfaces.
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He’s got wins over Casper Ruud, Holger Rune and Arthur Fils this season, so punching up against Paul is not out of the question at all.
The Portuguese looks decent value Thursday.
The Play: Borges (+350, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
