The Supreme Court hit the brakes on President Trump’s tariff agenda on Friday, which could potentially save Americans hundreds of dollars this year – though it appears unlikely the president will be able follow through on his pledge to send out $2,000 tariff dividend checks.
Based on the average tariff rate of 16.9% that was in effect prior to the ruling, the average US household was expected to shell out an additional $1,300 to $1,700 in 2026, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
But in the 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court found that Trump exceeded his presidential authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose a batch of high tariffs related to trade imbalances and fentanyl smuggling.
Though some other tariffs will remain in place, the end of IEEPA tariffs could cut the anticipated burden on consumers in 2026 by about half, to roughly $600 to $800, John Ricco, associate director of policy analysis at the Budget Lab, told CNBC.
“I’m actually shocked that the number wasn’t a little higher on the financial burden to the average American household than $1,000,” Erik Rosica, sales supervisor at OEC Group New York, a global freight forwarding company, told The Post.
“I do agree that the impact of reversing them would hopefully halve it – but again, that’s only if people lower their prices,” he added.
However, he voiced skepticism that businesses will actually cut their prices – especially clothing retailers and those that sell big-ticket items like furniture.
Meanwhile, Friday’s Supreme Court ruling appears to undermine Trump’s promise to send out “tariff dividend” checks by this year’s midterm elections.
Rosica said the decision means there just won’t be funds to pay for the checks, since Trump was planning to use tariff revenue to send out the stimulus payments, though the expert added that “nothing’s off the table.”
Some of Trump’s tariffs will remain in place for now – but revenue from those levies wouldn’t be enough to make up the difference from the ones nixed by the Supreme Court and enable the government to send out checks.
Dishing out $2,000 to low- and middle-income Americans would cost as much as $600 billion – twice the revenue previously expected from all of Trump’s tariffs, including those that have been overturned, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
For Americans who are hoping to see lower prices after the tariff ruling, they’ll likely only notice it on smaller, everyday purchases like household items, according to Rosica.
Here’s the latest on President Trump’s tariffs following Supreme Court ruling:
If shoppers notice a paper cup that’s 20 cents cheaper than the one next to it on the shelf, for example, they’ll go with the more affordable option – so companies will have to duke it out with their pricing strategies.
In certain sectors, some businesses have also been swallowing added tariff costs, as seen in consumer and producer price data over the past few months, so the drops might not be as significant as consumers are expecting.
Even if companies decide to lower their prices, it will take at least three to six months before shoppers see the difference in stores, Rosica estimated.
“A court ruling isn’t the same as clarity,” Dave Warrick, executive vice president at Overhaul, a company specializing in supply chain and risk management, said in a note Friday. “Most companies won’t immediately unwind sourcing shifts or rewrite supplier agreements.”
“What we’ll likely see is continued caution – delayed investments, conservative ordering, and a wait-and-see approach until policy direction stabilizes,” he added.
Many business leaders are likely fearful that the Trump administration will simply pivot and implement the tariffs under a new national security or trade provision.
On Friday, he promised to impose a new 10% global tariff.
There is also the issue of tariff-priced inventory already sitting in warehouses or on boats in transit, which was sourced under the import taxes, experts noted.
In the meantime, companies might be rushing to order a surge on production – since customers will want to run out and grab goods at lower prices before tariffs go back into place.
“We saw last year as soon as certain tariffs got dropped, let’s just say it was furniture, everybody rushes to just refill their warehouses,” Rosica told The Post.
“They’ll put as much on the water as they can and then find warehouse space where they need it to make sure they have stock at a lower rate.”
