UFC Vegas 109 predictions: Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez picks, odds, best bets

Back at the warehouse where they feature fights.

Back-to-back cards in Las Vegas at the Apex after a highly entertaining card last week gave us two fight of the year candidates on the main card.

It’s another weekend of big-time favorites, as just two of the 12 fights feature odds inside of -200 in the matchup.

Below, we break down UFC Vegas 109 with fight predictions and bets for this main card showing.

The entire card is on ESPN beginning at 4 p.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night Vegas 109 predictions

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez

Two top 10-ranked middleweights square off in our main event this weekend, where Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez faces off against Roman Dolidze.

Hernandez is a scrappy, high-volume striker with solid grappling chops, headlined by an insane Peruvian neck-tie submission against Rodolfo Viera.

This is certainly going to be a tough matchup for Doldize, who doesn’t profile as well as Hernandez as a striker, and he will not have a grappling advantage to fall back on if things go south in the striking department.

Hernandez’s ability to push the pace is critical in this fight, as Dolidze tends to wilt down the stretch, like he did in losses to Marvin Vettori and Trevin Giles way back in 2021.

Hernandez is the clear side here for me, and I prefer to take him by decision at +255 on BetRivers, a rogue price when you compare it to the rest of the market.

PICK: Hernandez by decision (+255, BetRivers)

Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne

From giving the champion everything he can handle and more to a three-fight skid and fighting for your spot on the roster, things can change quickly in this sport.

That’s what is staring into the eyes of Steve Erceg, who comes in as a massive -500 favorite in the co-main event.

Erceg gets the benefit of Osbourne taking this fight on two weeks’ notice without having another fight booked.

Osbourne, a normal flyweight, as is Erceg, is heading up to a new weight class for this bout.

The “Jamaican Sensation” is 2-4 over his last six, but he does boast some solid striking that could be competitive with Erceg in stand-up exchanges.

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Where I see the big hole for Osbourne is in the grappling department, as Erceg should have a clear path to victory by getting this tussle on the ground.

Osbourne has potential, and there’s plenty of upside to his game, but taking this fight on short notice against a far superior grappler is too much to overcome.

Erceg is a -500 favorite, so we’re looking for some value, and that’s why I’ve landed on the Australian to win via submission.

Erceg has submitted six of his 12 opponents, while Oscourne has been submitted four times.

This should be low-hanging fruit for Erceg, should he take this fight to the mat.

PICK: Erceg by submission (+185, FanDuel)

UFC Fight Night full fight card picks

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez: Hernandez by decision (+255, BetRivers)

Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne: Erceg by submission (+185, FanDuel)

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill: Fight to be won by split or majority decision (+200, DraftKings)

Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez: Fili by decision (+440, BetRivers)

Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto: Johns moneyline (+255, BetRivers)

Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan: Pass

Julius Walker vs. Rafael Cerqueira: Fight goes the distance (+650, BetRivers)

Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama: Smith by KO (-175, Fanatics Sportsbook)

Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira: Fight goes the distance (-152, Fanduel)

Uros Medic vs. Gilbert Urbina: Urbina ML (+350, BetMGM)

Gabriella Fernandes vs. Julija Stoliarenko: Fight goes the distance (+190, Caesars Sportsbook)

Cody Brundage vs. Eric McConico: Pass

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.