Seventh straight week of fights come into focus for UFC Fight Night at the warehouse known as the APEX Center.
Assuming no cancellations or egregious weight misses, we’ll have 13 fights on our docket, with seven of the 13 projected to end inside the distance.
The fight card features some mismatches, though, as only six of the fights feature odds within -150/+125 of each other, and four of the fights have massive underdogs of +320 or higher.
Below, we break down some of the best bets to target for UFC Fight Night Vegas.
UFC FIght Night predictions
Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan
A pair of teammates face off as Chris Duncan matches up with Renato Moicano, with the two still training together at American Top Team.
It’s one of the strangest and rarest of occurrences in this sport, as neither fighter chose to leave their camp for this bout, meaning they will fight one another while still seeing each other on a daily basis in the gym.
That familiarity is certainly noteworthy; we’ve seen past fights, like Michael “Venom” Page vs. Sam Patterson, go to a boring decision due in large part to familiarity.
These two are different to be fair, and Duncan is a -175 favorite, though I don’t see that being necessarily correct considering Moicano has been in there with some of the best in the promotion.
Duncan has two losses in the UFC, both to lower-level competition, with seven wins.
Moicano has lost two straight, but his wins against Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner are far better than anything Duncan has on his resume.
Duncan is hittable but tough as nails, so I like this one to go a bit longer, with over 1.5 rounds coming in at -170 on bet365.
That is ultimately my favorite play on the entire card.
THE PLAY: Over 1.5 rounds (-170, bet365)
Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci
A meaningful, albeit potentially boring fight, at women’s strawweight as Virna Jandiroba matches up with Tabatha Ricci.
It’s a three-round fight where Jandiroba is a -130 favorite, and the bout is clearly expected to go the distance at -370 (78.72 percent implied).
Ricci is coming off a win over Amanda Lemos, but was dominated by Yan Xiaonan before that.
Jandiroba will be looking to get this fight to the mat and push the pace on Ricci, but this is a five-round fight after she lost to Mackenzie Dern for the belt.
MMA math is never perfect, but Jandiroba does have wins over Xiaonan and Loopy Godinez, both of whom beat Ricci.
I always pause when betting on a fighter in a three-round fight who has just fought a five-rounder
There’s nothing statistical I can point to that proves this, but I feel like they start a little too slow for my liking, especially for a fight projected to go to a decision.
We’ll take the better grappler to push the pace and win a decision.
THE PLAY: Jandiroba by decision (+155, BetRivers)
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Prelims and main picks
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro: Ribeiro ML (+1000, DraftKings) small bet
Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam: Ewing by decision (+195, FanDuel)
Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini: Pass
Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala: Delano wins and fight starts round 2 (-110, DraftKings)
Guilherme Pat vs. Thomas Petersen: Fight goes the distance (+110, Circa)
Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll: Costa by submission (+375, BetRivers)
Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers: Fight goes the distance (+160, BetRivers) | Small bet on Flowers by decision (+850, BetRivers)
Alice Pereira vs. Hailey Cowan: Fight goes the distance (-275, DraftKings) for parlays
Azamat Bekoev vs. Tresean Gore: Gore ML (+500, DraftKings)
Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto: Fight goes the distance (-235, bet365) parlay with Pereira/Cowan
Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope: Hope ML (+145, Polymarket)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
