Context really matters in betting on any bowl game, but that is especially so in Wednesday’s Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.
The elephant in the room is head coach Sherrone Moore’s firing and subsequent arrest earlier this month, which shifted the line three points in Texas’ direction. This public implosion has left No. 18 Michigan with a lot to prove after an ugly act against No. 2 Ohio State that sealed its season one month ago.
With only three opt-outs, it’s now a one-game team left in the hands of associate head coach Biff Poggi. The market has treated this transition as a fatal flaw, but with no long-term politics at play and the dignity of a prestigious college football program to protect, the Wolverines don’t really have a choice other than to buy in.
Texas vs. Michigan odds, prediction
No. 13 Texas can’t be thrilled spending New Year’s Eve playing in a bowl game named after crackers when it began the season with a national championship in mind as the No. 1 ranked team in the country.
The Longhorns were a defense-first team all season long. They allowed 19.8 points per game, ranked 15th in opponent EPA per play, and 21st in SP+ defensive rating. This unit will be missing seven starters, including Anthony Hill Jr. and Michael Taaffe, while breaking in depth under a new defensive coordinator.
I wouldn’t tout Michigan’s offense as elite, but it’s built to stress defenders with a top-15 rushing success rate and consistent early-down efficiency even without Justice Haynes’ 7.1 yards per carry.
Jordan Marshall tied him with 10 touchdowns and led the team with 932 raw yards.
Much of the Longhorn’s rankings could be attributed to Arch Manning’s learning curve. Texas finished 92nd in offensive success rate and relied heavily on explosive plays to function.
The Wolverines sustained the No. 12 rank in defensive SP+, a top-five mark in pressure rate, and can limit yards per successful dropback as well as anyone in the country. Of course, losing Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham lowers the pass rush ceiling, but Michigan’s defense is built on coverage discipline, not one or two names.
Betting on College Football?
Bryce Underwood’s marks reflect more of a true freshman season instead of a liability. He hoisted the run game with five rushing scores and logged over 2,200 passing yards. Texas’ secondary was simply brutal, giving up 237.6 yards through the air and ranking 126th in completions allowed.
He is tasked with a realistic mission against this transitioned defense: punish light boxes, convert manageable third downs, and capitalize on short fields.
This wasn’t the preseason goal for either team, so I’d prefer the underdog playing for pride. Besides, seven points is simply too big a number to justify headlines from three weeks ago.
THE PLAY: Michigan +7 (-105, Fanatics)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
