NFL Week 9 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

When the Giants and Commanders last met in Week 2 in Landover, Md., the immediate takeaway was that the Giants blew a winnable game largely because they decided to let Graham Gano kick with a lingering groin injury, 

On the opening kickoff, Gano injured his hamstring trying to chase Austin Ekeler on a 98-yard return that ultimately was nullified by a Washington penalty. Whether one injury led to the other is a better question for a doctor, but it didn’t take long for the ramifications to come. Late in the first quarter, after a Devin Singletary touchdown gave the Giants a 6-3 lead, punter and stand-in kicker Jamie Gillan missed a PAT. 

Later, after touchdowns by Malik Nabers just before the half and Wan’Dale Robinson early in the fourth, the Giants failed on 2-point conversion passes. And with the scored tied at 18 with 2:04 to go, Brian Daboll elected to go for it on fourth-and-2 from the Washington 22. A pass from Daniel Jones to Nabers was incomplete, and the Commanders drove downfield and won the game, 21-18, on Austin Seibert’s seventh field goal. 

In terms of trying to predict Sunday’s rematch at MetLife Stadium, it might be better to look beyond the fateful kicker decision. That game was the first glimpse of what Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense would quickly become. 

Though the Giants defense kept them out of the end zone, the Commanders scored points on all seven possessions they had in the game (minus a kneel-down at the end of the first half), outgained the Giants 425 yards to 304 and had a time-of-possession edge of 37:32 to 22:38. 

Another issue for the Giants is their home-away discrepancy. On the road, they are 2-2 and average 21.5 ppg, and at home they are 0-4 and average 7.5 ppg. 

The only hesitancy for me in backing the Commanders is that they are riding high at 6-2 and are coming off a miracle Hail Mary victory against the Bears. The NFL has a way of placing speed bumps in the way of joy-riders. But for 60 minutes of football over three hours Sunday, they feel like the better choice. 

The pick: Commanders -4. 

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

At mid-week, the Cowboys were hoping to get back pick-six machine DaRon Bland from the injury list. That would help against a solid Falcons offense. Starting RB Rico Dowdle is expected to return, and that would aid Dak Prescott in what feels like the last stand in the Cowboys’ season. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Bengals were tied at 17 with the Eagles late in the third quarter before that game fell apart for a 37-17 loss last week. Hard to justify laying a full touchdown with a 3-5 team, and yes, the Raiders do have a surprise win at Baltimore on their résumé. Yet, it still figures there’s a runaway or two left in Joe Burrow, and this could be a good spot for one. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1.5) over Los Angeles Chargers

Jameis Winston took over against the Ravens and delivered a 29-24 victory with 334 yards passing, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. That last number is the key to the Browns having a resurgence this season. With Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore and David Njoku, this team can still be heard from. Though the Browns are banged up on defense, Myles Garrett is healthy enough to get after Justin Herbert. 

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over New England Patriots

The Titans lost, 52-14, last week despite outgaining the Lions 416 yards to 225. And 70 of those Detroit yards came on one touchdown run by Jahmyr Gibbs. Four turnovers and a special teams touchdown will create that result. Despite a rash of mid-week injury questionables and the prospect (threat?) of Will Levis returning, the Titans are a better team than the Patriots, who are coming off their “win for the month” against the Jets. 

New Orleans Saints (-7) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Derek Carr is expected to return to a Saints team that has lost six in a row, the past three by 18 points or more. He started in the first three losses of that skid, but I’m thinking if Carr is ever going to rediscover the success of the first two weeks, when the Saints beat Carolina, 47-10, and Dallas, 44-19, it will be this week against a Panthers team that’s giving up 33.9 ppg and is stuck with Bryce Young under center. 

Denver Broncos (+9) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Broncos are on a 5-1 run and have given up 13.5 ppg in that stretch. Bo Nix also seems to be in better control of the Sean Payton offense for a team that looks to be in ascent. The Ravens defense is ranked 25th in yardage and 26th in scoring, not great numbers for laying this many points. 

BUFFALO BILLS (-6) over Miami Dolphins

The Bills won, 31-10, in Miami in the Week 2 game in which Tua Tagovailoa suffered his latest concussion. It’s kind of scary Tagovailoa is back playing and he certainly gives the Dolphins a better chance to be competitive here. Wouldn’t go much higher, but this number seems reasonable for a Bills team that’s healthy on the offensive line and defense. 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags have perked up a bit with a rout of the Patriots in London followed by a near miss at Green Bay. Check the injury status of WR Brian Thomas Jr. and RB Tank Bigsby, though. The Eagles have yielded 12 ppg in their three-game winning streak, and the offense may have kicked into gear in the second half in Cincinnati. 

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) over Chicago Bears

Will there be a carryover from the last-second loss for the Bears, and if so, will it be positive or negative? Though that’s hard to forecast, this is a nice price on a Cardinals team that has wins over the 49ers, Chargers and Dolphins (with Tua) in the past month. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3.5) over Detroit Lions

As mentioned, the Lions’ blowout win over the Titans was not all the final score indicated. At mid-week, Jordan Love (groin) was hoping to play, but even if we have to ride with Malik Willis at some point, it would be worth a shot with the Packers at home with points on a four-game winning streak. 

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

This line flipped favorites during the week, probably rightly so. The Seahawks are 1-4 after a 3-0 start. The Rams are whole offensively with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back, and this figures to be a scary team in the second half of the season. 

Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Matchup of former Jets QBs Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold on “Sunday Night Football.” Flacco already has two wins in place of Anthony Richardson earlier this season and now gets the No. 1 job after Richardson’s bizarre “tap out” for a key third-and-goal play last week because he was “tired.” His teammates know they can go to war with G.I. Joe. 

Betting on the NFL?

Monday

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

For a team that’s 7-0 this season (5-2 ATS) and has won 13 games in a row overall, there sure is a lot of hesitation laying a big number with the Chiefs. Last week’s backdoor cover they allowed the Raiders is the latest reminder. Baker Mayfield has been great and even without his top receivers, he’ll give you a chance to cash this ticket. 

Best bets: Rams, Broncos, Colts
Lock of the week: Rams (Locks 4-4 in 2024)
Last week: 8-8 overall, 3-0 Best Bets
Thursday: Jets.