NFL Week 10 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

Was the Jets’ victory over the Texans the start of a surge or an example of the proverbial blind squirrel finding an acorn? 

That’s the question fans and NFL bettors have to ask themselves as the team heads west to face Arizona on Sunday. 

We’ve been focusing on all of the games the Jets have lost this season that they should have won. If a few field-goal attempts by the formerly reliable Greg Zuerlein would have gone through the uprights, they’d be sitting at 5-4 or better. 

But a week ago Thursday at MetLife Stadium, it was the opposite story — a win that probably should have been a loss. 

The second half was a revelation. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes, including Garrett Wilson’s spectacular catch (who knew a shin could come down inbounds before a knee?) and the over-the-top clincher to Davante Adams. The defense also stepped up, holding C.J. Stroud to 11-for-30 passing and sacking him eight times. 

The result papered over some very serious problems: 

* Irv Charles roughing the punter on a fourth-and-21. 

* Malachi Corley dropping the ball before the goal line on a sure touchdown. 

* Eric Watts roughing the snapper on a field-goal attempt, a call you never see because nobody does it!! 

Dumb plays and endless penalties suggest Jets players aren’t fully invested in this season mentally. Maybe that changed with a taste of success, but carelessness is a hard habit to break. 

The opposition is more than just a footnote here. The Cardinals come in on a three-game winning streak after a 29-9 destruction of the Bears. They also have victories over the Chargers, Rams, 49ers and Dolphins (with Tua Tagovailoa), so this team is no joke. 

Arizona’s offensive line is healthy after paving the way for 213 rushing yards vs. Chicago. Starting RB James Conner is questionable with a finger injury, but backups Trey Benson and Emari Demercado should find success against a Jets defense that ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed despite being No. 4 in total yards allowed. 

Maybe Rodgers and Wilson and Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams finally have everything under control, and the Texans win lit the fuse. They’ll have to show me because this looks like a rough matchup on the road against a good team. 

The pick: Cardinals +1.5. 

New York Giants (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers (in Munich)

Yes, the records say these teams are both 2-7, and it screams that bettors should take the near-touchdown head start. And yes, the Giants rank last in the NFL with 15.4 points per game, so how on earth could one consider giving this many? 

Just seems to me that the Giants are a better team than the Panthers, and not just by a little. They have scored a total of 40 points the past two weeks vs. the Steelers and Commanders, and in games not at MetLife this season, they are averaging 21.5 ppg. 

These Europe games often devolve into blowouts, and the Panthers’ victory over the free-falling Saints feels like it came from the “Win of the Month” club. 

CHICAGO BEARS (-6) over New England Patriots

The Bears have hit a lull offensively out of the bye in road losses to the Commanders and Cardinals. Before that, they won three consecutive home games, the last two by 26 over Carolina and 19 over Jacksonville. Those are bad teams, but so are the Patriots. 

Buffalo Bills (-4) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Scary number because the Colts are 3-1 at home with wins over the Bears, Steelers and Dolphins, and a two-point loss to the Texans. However, Indianapolis ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed, and with ground success, Josh Allen should be able to do whatever he wants against that defense. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) over Denver Broncos

Brutal back-to-back road spot for the Broncos after giving up a perfect passer rating to Lamar Jackson in a 41-10 loss at Baltimore. The Chiefs failed to cover their past two games, but they’ve won 14 games in a row, have a new spark with DeAndre Hopkins and hate Denver. 

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Falcons have a propensity to burn backers when they’re small to moderate favorites, often falling behind late and winning on a last-second kick that doesn’t produce a cover. That shouldn’t be the case this week as Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson take aim at a Saints team that has dropped seven in a row, fired coach Dennis Allen, lost Chris Olave to injury and traded Marshon Lattimore to Washington. 

San Francisco 49ers (-6) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

What a brutal situation for the Bucs — a short week after a Monday night, overtime, lay-it-all-on-the line loss to the Chiefs, and now face a desperate Niners team off a bye that might get Christian McCaffrey back. Having Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea on the injury list doesn’t help. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

I’m aware a lot of sharp handicappers are touting the Commanders — who have won seven of their past eight, with the loss coming by seven against the Ravens. Yet, I choose to cling to a trend that’s paid off so many times. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is a career 65.1 percent ATS as an underdog, and the Commanders’ Dan Quinn is 40.4 percent as a favorite. 

Minnesota ­Vikings (-7) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This line is climbing fast with the expectation Trevor Lawrence will miss time with a shoulder injury. Combine that with health issues for other Jags skill players Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, and this looks to be a cakewalk for Justin Jefferson and Co., and a nightmare for Mac Jones against Brian Flores’ attack-happy Vikings defense. 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-7.5) over Tennessee Titans

The Chargers are not a team you’d normally expect to win by margin, but Justin Herbert is heating up with wins of 26-8 vs. the Saints and 27-10 at the Browns. The Titans may be even worse than those teams — having lost games by 16, 19, 24 and 38 points this season. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

Jerry World has been a house of horrors for the Cowboys. They’re 0-3 by a combined score of 119-43. And that was with Dak Prescott. Now it’s Cooper Rush in his first start since 2022. Though lingering injuries to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are a concern, this one shapes up as Philly or nothing. 

Detroit Lions (-3.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

Lions have won six in a row and return to prime time packing a lethal and healthy offense that has averaged 36 ppg in that span. The Texans are a respectable team with a few extra days’ rest. It’s just that they list five defensive starters as questionable, including pass-rush menace Will Anderson Jr. 

Betting on the NFL?

MONDAY 

Miami Dolphins (+1) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

This could be one of the stealth games of the week as both teams come in as healthy as they’ve been all season. The Dolphins have scored 27 points in each of Tua Tagovailoa’s games since returning from his latest concussion, but the Dolphins lost by one to Arizona and three at Buffalo. No shade on Matthew Stafford and his teammates, just thinking this is the week Tua, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle really kick it into gear. 

Best bets: Falcons, 49ers, Lions
Lock of the week: Falcons (Locks 5-4 in 2024)
Last week: 6-9 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
Thursday: Bengals