The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round.
SUNDAY
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Texans
I jumped on this line earlier this week when the Patriots opened at -2.5 on Sunday and it was still hanging around Monday.
The Texans are definitely the best defense that the Patriots have played this season, but I’ll still trust Drake Maye’s squad here.
New England’s offense is humming, putting up seven yards per play in its last three games, while its defense has also played superbly, giving up just 3.9 yards per play (fourth-best).
My model has the Patriots favored here pretty big, with a projected score of 22.74-16.57.
This is a spot to take the favorite at home in what we’re expecting to be some crummy conditions that could include rain and sleet.
Rams (-3.5) over BEARS
The favorite will roll Sunday night.
We love the Bears; they’re fun to watch and pull off ridiculous comebacks, but they can’t really do that forever, can they?
The data really backs me up here, too. Chicago is rated No. 16 in DVOA, by far the lowest of any remaining playoff team.
Los Angeles is way higher up on that list, coming in at No. 2 overall.
Things can get weird in the playoffs, we won’t deny it, but this would be a really shocking upset that you just don’t see much of in the league.
Still, we’ll target the Rams against the spread and expect that the season-long trends of these two teams holds true.
Betting on the NFL?
Remember, the Rams were favored by 10.5 against the Panthers. This feels like a buy-low spot on Sean McVay’s group.
My model projects a score range of 29.24-25.38 in favor of the Rams.
The Rams have been among the Super Bowl favorites for most of the season, and they should be taken seriously in this matchup, even if it’s freezing cold in Chicago.
Season: 116-123-5
Playoffs: 2-2
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
