The college basketball options are scant tonight as we await the full slate of conference tournaments to begin. There is one game of note for Thursday night, though, and it takes place in the Big Ten.
No. 3 Michigan heads to Carver-Hawkeye arena for a matchup with Iowa. Each of these teams has one more game ahead this weekend to wrap up the season — the Wolverines face No. 8 Michigan State and the Hawkeyes face No. 9 Nebraska.
Both those matchups carry a bit more weight because of the rivalries between the fan bases, which makes it all the more likely that Thursday’s game could be overlooked.
Sportsbooks don’t expect much competition with the Wolverines favored by 8.5 points on the road, which feels warranted considering Michigan is 10-0 on the road.
Michigan vs. Iowa prediction, best bet
This game will be an interesting clash of styles. The Hawkeyes play at the slowest pace in the country out of 365 teams with just 64.6 possessions per game. Michigan plays at a much faster pace with 74.4 possessions per game, which is tied for 25th.
Playing at that pace allows the Hawkeyes to control the action in games and it is part of the reason why they allow the fewest points per game in the Big Ten and the 10th-fewest in the country, giving up just 65 points per game. Most impressively, the Hawkeyes suppress 3-point attempts and allow 19.2 points on opponents’ 3s.
They will need their defense to be at its best against a Michigan team that can shoot well at decent volume — 36 percent from deep on 26 attempts per game, which ranks sixth-most in the conference.
Where Michigan really dominates is with its size up front. The Wolverines start three players listed at a 6-foot-9 or taller: Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson jr., and seven-footer Aday Mara.
The Hawkeyes have 6-foot-10 Alvara Folguieras coming off the bench and forward Cam Manyawu listed at 6-foot-9, but not much else comparable size in their rotation.
Betting on College Basketball?
Not only does Michigan have the defenders to blanket Iowa’s top scoring guard Bennett Stirtz, who averages 20.5 points per game, the Wolverines can pulverize their opponents in the paint. They rank second in the country shooting 62.2 percent on 2-point shots this season.
I think Iowa will put up a fight, but ultimately Michigan has too many advantages. Instead of betting the full-game, I’ll take Michigan to cover the first half, which is more appealing at -4.5.
The Pick: Michigan -4.5 1H spread (-115, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
