Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are in a neck-and-neck race for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve – with the lead changing hands on prediction markets several times this week.
Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, regained the top spot on Kalshi and Polymarket on Tuesday as he pleaded his case for the job.
The Fed’s “independence is really, really important, and the voices of the other people at the [Federal Open Market Committee], they’re important, too,” Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday.
He said he doesn’t believe Trump will disqualify candidates for being “a close friend.”
As of Tuesday afternoon on Kalshi, about 53% of bettors placed their odds on Hassett clinching the nomination. Some 34% said Warsh, a former Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, would likely get the title.
By the same time on Polymarket, traders saw 54% odds of Hassett winning the nomination and 36% for Warsh. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also racked up roughly 6% and 2% odds, respectively.
On Monday, Kalshi traders had seen Warsh usurp Hassett’s longtime lead with a 46% chance of nomination as reports swirled that top advisers are concerned Hassett will be viewed as too close to the president.
Bloomberg News reported last month that Hassett had emerged as the frontrunner in the race to succeed Powell – whom Trump has long railed against for not slashing interest rates quickly enough.
Last week, Hassett’s odds on Kalshi were as high as 77% and Warsh’s were as low as 10% as the former was seen as a shoo-in.
But Wall Street titans, corporate CEOs and money managers have been urging the president not to pick Hassett – concerned he will simply do Trump’s bidding instead of following trends in the bond markets, The Post previously reported.
Hassett has been making his case for the job, saying Tuesday that interest-rate decisions should be based on “the facts and the data.”
Over the weekend, he told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that Trump’s opinion “would have no weight” in his decisions as Fed chairman.
He added, however, that he thinks Trump has “very strong and well-founded views about what we ought to do,” and it’s up to the committee to vote in a different way if they reject these ideas.
The back-and-forth between Hassett and Warsh could explain why interviews with prospective candidates were abruptly canceled in December. Trump announced last week that he would be launching the final round of interviews.
The president earlier told reporters he already knew who he would pick as Fed chairman – but during an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, Trump said Warsh had shot to the top of his list.
“I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both – I think the two Kevins are great,” he said. “I think there are a couple of other people that are great.”
