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I met Mark, in his late 50s, at an upscale restaurant in downtown Dallas. He is a lifelong Democrat and an immigration attorney, and, in general, is the kind of voter Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico needs not only to vote for him but to be excited to do so.
“My dad worked the railroad, made me go to college, we were LBJ [Lyndon B. Johnson] Democrats, and well, let’s just say, Talarico is obviously very different from Johnson, or even Ann Richards [Texas’ last Democratic governor, who served in the 1990s].”
Mark declined to tell me who he was voting for, or even whether he would vote, but I suspect Talarico can count on him, especially given Mark’s less-than-favorable view of Republican Ken Paxton. But there was no excitement when he talked about the race. Like so many others I spoke with, he said, “This isn’t like when Beto [O’Rourke] ran.”
Left: Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a press conference at the Hyatt Centric Congress Avenue on July 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas. Right: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton waves at the conclusion of a campaign event at Matt’s Rancho Martinez restaurant on August 04, 2026 in Allen, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images; Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
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If enthusiasm is a potential weak point for the Talarico campaign, then an even more worrisome one is his lagging support in the Black community, long the bedrock of Texas Democratic politics.
Jay and Darryl are two Black men in their 50s whom I met while they were having breakfast near the AT&T Discovery District. They each have very different ideas about what is going to happen Tuesday, when voters have their final say.
Jay told Digital of the Senate race, “Actually, I don’t think it’s going to be close, he’s going to kill it, because he can get people to flip over,” adding, “He would have had a harder time with [Sen. John] Cornyn.”
Darryl, however, seemed less convinced, arguing that in Texas, “Conservatives aren’t loud, they don’t march, they don’t act up, they paint their hair, but I think they are the silent majority.”
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is facing a problem with Black voter enthusiasm in Texas, according to insiders. (John Moore/Getty Images)
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Both men agreed that Talarico’s failure to mend fences with his primary opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, is a problem for Talarico, but they differed on how significant a problem it was, with Jay arguing, “She’s still helping, just down-ballot.”
Carlos, who lives in Dallas and works in a hotel, told me over a cigar that looking “at the trajectory of America … I just don’t feel represented in any way.” He went on to say, “I really wanted to believe it, the whole thing about no wars … my gas is super expensive from the people who said there was not going to be a war.”
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This is good news for Talarico, in part because Carlos is a Joe Rogan fan who, though not a President Donald Trump voter, was open to the possibility that Trump could sway him, something that has not happened.
On the other side of the ledger for Talarico, or perhaps I should say for Ken Paxton, is Debbie, a suburban mother who told Digital, “I’m a moderate, I have voted for Democrats, I voted for Beto, but Talarico just says so much crazy stuff, it’s too much for Texas.”
Had these conversations taken place across the Lone Star State, it might be good news for Talarico, but all of these people are in the Dallas area, where he needs to rack up major numbers to offset GOP dominance in rural areas.
On Tuesday, I spoke with GOP consultant Vinny Minchello before we appeared on “The Will Cain Show.” He said, “I do not like what I see in the early voting for Paxton.” He estimated that the GOP was about 100,000 votes behind but acknowledged that, as a consultant, he never tries to paint a rosy picture.
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican US Senate candidate, during a “Come and Take It Tour” campaign event in San Antonio, Texas, US, on Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (Christopher Lee/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
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When asked specifically about the early vote in the Black community, he told Digital, “It looks like it is down.” So again, a mixed bag.
One wild-card issue that continues to come up in my conversations on the ground is the riots in France, with one voter telling me, “What if that was New York City, or D.C.? That doesn’t really seem impossible.”
The GOP, especially at Vice President JD Vance’s rallies, has been hitting the France issue, and what it says about unchecked immigration, hard in recent days, and I would expect that to continue.
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Make no mistake, the Texas Senate race is tight, but if James Talarico cannot shore up the many votes he needs in Big D, it very well could leave Ken Paxton with enough votes in red counties to close the deal with Texas voters and help keep the Senate in Republican hands.
