Iran’s military is built to survive, not win a conventional war, analysts say

Iran’s military is not designed to win a conventional war against the United States or Israel. It is designed to survive one, absorb damage and continue fighting over time, experts say.

That strategy is reflected both in how the force is built and how it is performing now, after weeks of sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes.

The scale of the campaign has been significant. More than 9,000 targets have been struck since the launch of Operation Epic Fury, according to a March 23, 2026, fact sheet from U.S. Central Command, alongside more than 9,000 combat flights, hitting missile sites, air defenses, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command centers and weapons production facilities.

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U.S. officials say the objective is clear. 

“We are targeting and eliminating Iran’s ballistic missile systems … destroying the Iranian Navy … and ensuring Iran cannot rapidly rebuild,” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said during a March Pentagon briefing.

But analysts caution that the picture is more complex.

“It’s a mixed bag,” Nicholas Carl, a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank and assistant director of the Critical Threats Project, told Digital. “On one hand, (Iran’s military) is badly degraded across the board, but the regime still retains a significant amount of capability.” 

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At the heart of Iran’s military system is a deliberate dual structure: the conventional army, known as the Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.  (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Handout via Reuters)

A ‘double army’ built to protect the regime

At the heart of Iran’s military system is a deliberate dual structure: the conventional army, known as the Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a parallel force created after the 1979 revolution to safeguard the regime.

According to Carl, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has shaped the armed forces throughout decades around one central objective: preserving the Islamic Republic and exporting its revolutionary ideology.

“You need to separate between the IRGC and the regular army,” Middle East intelligence expert Danny Citrinowicz told Digital. “The IRGC gets all of the budgets — better salaries, better equipment, better everything.”

Carl describes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a “deeply ideological praetorian guard,” while the Artesh remains a more conventional force tasked with defending Iran’s borders.

But the distinction is not absolute. 

“The IRGC is probably the more dangerous of the two, but we cannot discount the threat that the regular military poses as well,” Carl said.

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A big banner depicting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is placed next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, in 2024. (Photo by Hossein Beris / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Missiles remain Iran’s most powerful weapon

Iran’s missile program remains the backbone of its military power, even after extensive strikes.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has spent years building what Carl describes as the largest missile inventory in the Middle East.

U.S. officials say those capabilities have been significantly reduced with recent strikes. 

“Iran’s ballistic missile shots fired are down 86% from the first day of fighting,” Caine said in a Pentagon briefing earlier in March, adding that drone launches have dropped by roughly 73%.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in the same briefing that the campaign has sharply limited Iran’s ability to sustain attacks. 

“The enemy can no longer shoot the volume of missiles they once did, not even close,” he said. 

But even U.S. officials acknowledge the threat persists. 

“Iran will still be able to shoot some missiles … and launch one-way attack drones,” Hegseth said.

Carl said the decline in fire has plateaued.

“Iranian missile and drone fire has dropped precipitously … about 90% since the war began… but that number has been consistent for weeks,” he said. “That means they still retain enough capability to sustain strikes across the region.”

Citrinowicz offered a similar assessment. 

“They suffered blows, but still hold the ability and still have the capacity to launch missiles for weeks to come,” he said.

U.S. estimates cited by Carl suggest roughly a third of Iran’s missile capabilities remain active.

“The regime still does have a significant capability to threaten targets across the region … especially as it demonstrates the ability to shoot beyond 2,000 kilometers,” Carl said.

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The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed by the Israelis on March 26, 2026, at an exhibition in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran, in 2024.  (Iranian Presidency Office via AP)

A navy built to disrupt global trade

The Pentagon says it has made major gains against Iran’s naval forces.

More than 140 Iranian vessels have been damaged or destroyed, according to U.S. Central Command.

Caine said U.S. forces have “effectively neutralized” Iran’s major naval presence in the region.

But analysts warn that Iran’s naval threat was never dependent on large ships.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is built around “area denial capabilities,” including fast attack craft, mines, missiles and drones designed to swarm adversaries and disrupt maritime movement.

“They still have the capacity — speedboats, drones, surface-to-sea missiles — allowing them to block the Strait of Hormuz,” Citrinowicz said.

Carl cautioned against a common misconception.

“It’s not technically accurate to say the Strait of Hormuz is closed … Iran is selectively denying access … firing at some ships while allowing others to pass,” he said.

“Iran has to do very, very little to achieve a meaningful effect.”

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A Fighter aircraft is seen at the first underground air force base, called “Eagle 44” at an undisclosed location in Iran, in this handout image obtained Feb. 7, 2023.  (West Asia News Agency/Handout via REUTERS)

Air superiority, but not total control

U.S. officials say the campaign has achieved major progress in the air.

“We will have complete control of Iranian skies, uncontested airspace,” Hegseth said.

Caine added that U.S. forces have already established “localized air superiority” and are expanding operations deeper into Iranian territory.

But Iran’s air force was never the centerpiece of its strategy. Years of sanctions have left it reliant on aging aircraft and limited modernization, making it far less capable than its Western or regional adversaries.

“There is definitely a setback … but Iran was never built on an air force,” Citrinowicz said.

Instead, Iran relies on missiles, drones and layered defenses.

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On the ground, Iran retains a key advantage: its forces have largely not been directly engaged. (Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)

Ground forces remain largely intact

On the ground, Iran retains a key advantage: its forces have largely not been directly engaged.

The Artesh ground forces, which include tens of brigades, are positioned primarily to defend Iran’s borders, according to Carl’s report.

“The ground troops are still intact, nobody has invaded Iran,” Citrinowicz said.

He noted that ground forces are increasingly launching drones, signaling a broader shift in how Iran fights.

Proxy network extends Iran’s reach

Beyond its borders, Iran’s military power is extended through a network of proxy forces managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.

Carl said the Quds Force provides “leadership, materiel, intelligence, training and funds” to allied militias across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.

“The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is the central mechanism by which Iran can further regionalize the conflict … to endanger as many actors’ interests as possible,” Carl said.

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Iranian soldiers take part in a military parade during a ceremony marking the country’s annual army day April 17, 2024, in Tehran, Iran.  (Getty Images)

Built to survive, not to win

Iran’s military is also structured to confront internal threats, reinforcing its core purpose: regime survival.

The result is a force built on redundancy, asymmetry and endurance.

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Even after weeks of sustained strikes, Iran retains enough capability to continue launching missiles, harassing global shipping and leveraging proxy forces across the region.

It may be weakened, but it remains strategically dangerous. 

“We cannot discount the threat that the Iranian military poses,” Carl said, “it remains a force capable of threatening regional and international security.”