Historic 1-in-1,000-year flood expected to strike central US this week, forecasters warn

The central U.S. could experience historic flash flooding this week as torrential rains and thunderstorms repeatedly strike the same areas, forecasters have announced.

Weather website AccuWeather has warned of the potential for a 1-in-1,000-year flood across northeastern Arkansas to western Kentucky, with the worst-hit areas to receive the equivalent of four months’ worth of rain in just five days. In some cases, this will fall on areas that could be vulnerable to flooding, having already received a great deal of rainfall in recent months.

“We’re concerned about the risk of life-threatening and historic flash flooding, which could evolve into a major river flooding event,” Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said in a statement. “Dangerous situations can escalate to life-threatening emergencies in a matter of seconds with a flash flooding threat as serious as this.”

Heavy rain is expected to fall from Wednesday night (April 2) through Sunday (April 6), leading to widespread flash flooding, particularly in the Lower Ohio Valley, Mid-South, and Arkansas, according to the National Weather Service.

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The rain is flowing into the central U.S. from the tropics on an atmospheric river — a long, thin region of the atmosphere that transports heat and water vapor. The movement of water is expected to slow down and effectively stall between now and the weekend, resulting in a massive deluge of rain in the same few areas.

“A big area of high pressure off the coast of the Southeast U.S. will funnel moisture from the Caribbean and Gulf into parts of the central U.S.,” Porter said. “The weather pattern will look like a traffic jam in the atmosphere, with repeating thunderstorms and downpours over the same areas. This is a recipe for big flooding problems.”

Parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky are all expected to receive up to 1.5 feet (0.5 meter) of rain between Wednesday and Saturday (April 5), AccuWeather reported. Some of these same regions have already battled deadly flooding this year, particularly Kentucky, where flooding led to the deaths of at least 24 people in February.

Forecasters anticipate that the rains will ease off over the weekend, but rivers may continue to rise into next week. Porter noted that people in the affected areas should be prepared to make for higher ground.

“Relentless rainfall will cause problems along creeks, streams, and low-lying flood-prone areas first before evolving into a river flooding problem as all of the water tries to flow downstream,” Porter said. “Be ready to move quickly to higher ground.”