A lot of my readers, it appears, can’t imagine my bullish 2026 forecast playing out, and “Yeah, but” has been a popular refrain. Yeah, but what about midterm mayhem? Yeah, but look at these bubblicious valuations! Yeah, but isn’t this bull market getting long in the tooth? Yeah, but how ‘bout that wimpy dollar?
It is all beautiful and bullish music to my ears – showing that, despite broadly building optimism, the stock market’s wall of worry remains intact. Let’s kick these “buts.”
Yeah, midterms may have usually driven gridlock, powering your “midterm miracle.” But Trump makes this time different.
Sir John Templeton famously said the four most dangerous words in investing are “This time is different.” People said 2022’s midterms were different. They weren’t.
The president’s party lost seats in the House of Representatives in 22 of 25 midterms since 1926, shedding a median 26 seats. In the Senate, it lost a median of four seats. President Trump must radically up his approval rating — now 36% versus the 59% long-term average for presidents at this point in their presidency — to achieve a gridlock-busting result (based on Gallup polls).
Yeah, you say AI hasn’t created a bubble. But what about frothy S&P 500 valuations?
Valuations aren’t predictive. Never have been, as I showed with statistics in November. For every high-PE market that tanked, I can show you one that kept climbing (and vice versa for low P/E markets rising versus falling). Rising earnings currently help stocks rise despite seemingly high valuations.
But surely Trump will unleash more tariff terror?
Maybe! He loves tariffs as leverage. The USMCA renegotiation looms, so threats won’t surprise. While people fretted over tariffs throughout 2025, global trade actually grew 3.4%. Stocks rose as tariffs’ bite proved less than their bark. Tariff terror has lost its surprise power but contributes to non-US stocks leading American stocks in 2025 and now.
Yeah, but isn’t this bull market just getting too old not to die soon?
Bull markets never die from age. Deteriorating fundamentals, excess sentiment or both, gets them – always. At 41 months, this one isn’t even old. The last century’s median bull market lasted 60 months. Only one reached its third birthday without celebrating a fourth (1962 – 1966).
But you ignore the weak dollar. It dooms stocks.
Pure mythology. Currencies don’t drive stocks. And the buck’s 10.7% decline since 2025’s start isn’t abnormal under GOP presidents. It slightly lags the 11.7% slide over the same stretch of Trump’s first term.
Yeah, but haven’t you heard America staggers under a mountain of debt?
Close to $40 trillion of it. Sounds huge! Don’t let big, out-of-context numbers scare you. US debt payments’ rising share of tax take has returned to highs of the late 1980s and early 1990s. But those heights didn’t exactly tank GDP or stocks. Debt still remains affordable—and is actually shrinking in repayment value after adjusting for inflation.
Yeah, but all those layoffs are surely a harbinger of recession.
Private sector job creation more than offsets recent cuts. Employment is actually a late-lagging indicator, always – an after-effect of growth trends that stocks always pre-price. Job cuts don’t whack consumer spending or trigger recessions. Never have.
You said to expect a fine 2026. But why not as big as 2025?
The “midterm miracle” I detailed turbocharges US stocks late in midterm years. But the early and middle parts of midterm years typically slog, with shrill extremist campaigning stoking fearful uncertainty. There isn’t enough time for the “miracle” to spark huge gains before year-end.
Keep the “yeah, buts” coming. The stubborn doom and gloom keeps sentiment in check. The fact is, it’s only time to worry when spirits fly so high that the “But-in-skis” finally butt out.
Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.
