It’s the blue state blues.
Democratic strongholds New York and California will lose a combined six congressional seats after 2030 to the booming Sun Belt, according to an analysis of census figures released Tuesday.
The Redistricting Network projected that New York state will lose two more seats in the House of Representatives in the next decade because of stagnant population growth, which critics say is more evidence of an Empire State in decline.
And Americans are no longer California dreamin’ after decades of population growth — with the Golden State projected to lose four seats, the analysis said.
By contrast, Texas and Florida would gain four seats apiece with rapid population growth, according to the network.
The analysis was prepared by Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University, based on state-by-state 2025 population estimates recently released by the Census Bureau.
Cervas is a redistricting expert who was appointed by the court to redraw New York House maps in 2022 following a partisan legal fight between Democrats and Republicans.
“This is not good news for New York or California,” said Jeff Wice, a New York Law School lawyer who has aided the New York City Council in redrawing district lines.
He said the blue states could lose even more seats if President Trump and Republicans are able to require a question on census forms asking about citizenship, which will later help determine states’ populations.
While the US Constitution requires that all residents be counted regardless of legal status, Wice said, a question about citizenship could discourage illegal immigrants or others with questionable status from answering the form.
For the Empire State, it’s the latest bad news about its sway in the House after it dropped from 45 representatives in the mid-1940s to just 26 today. Its delegation would be reduced to 24 if the analysis’s predictions hold true.
The New York Republican Party blamed the population plunge on Gov. Kathy Hochul and Democrats dominating state government.
“Americans continue to vote with their feet, fleeing blue states and moving to red states,” said New York GOP spokesman David Laska.
“Who could blame them? One-party Democrat rule has made New York the most taxed, least affordable, least free state in America. That’s why New Yorkers are going to fire Kathy Hochul, elect [Republican gubernatorial candidate] Bruce Blakeman and put New York on a path to growth, affordability and prosperity.”
California has 52 House seats — the most of any state — but that could drop to 48, according to the analysis.
After a century of gains, California lost one House seat in 2020.
Meanwhile, Texas would jump from 38 House seats to 42 and Florida would increase from 28 seats to 32 in a post-census redistricting, according to the analysis.
Illinois, another blue state, also would lose another two House seats under the analysis — dropping from 17 House seats to 15.
