Average US gasoline prices on Monday jumped above $3 a gallon for the first time since November following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East – and heightened tensions there could see more hikes at the gas pump over the coming weeks, according to experts.
Brent crude oil prices surged Monday nearly 6% to more than $76 a barrel after joint US-Israeli air strikes on Iran over the weekend killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — sparking violent retaliation.
President Trump warned that the strikes could last “four weeks or so,” while Iranian attacks have broadened to include neighboring countries like the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain.
“We will start to see that impact at the pump because 20% of that oil comes from the Middle East,” Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, professor and Middle East expert at Arizona State University, told The Post. “This is something we can start to see creeping up over the next week or two.”
Iran, which is the fourth-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has closed the Strait of Hormuz – a vital maritime route located in the gulf between Oman and Iran – and threatened to set any ships that attempt to pass through it on fire, Reuters reported Monday evening, citing Iranian media.
The route saw about 20.9 million barrels of oil transported per day in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration – and its closure could disrupt crucial oil shipments.
“This is not something that can be turned on and off with a switch,” warned Zeinalzadeh, adding that even if the attacks end within four weeks, it could take longer for prices to come down than it did for them to spike.
In another scenario, protracted conflict could see prices spike as high as $100 per barrel — a level not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 — some experts warned.
“If the conflict is prolonged and, in particular, if it affects actual oil supply, due to disruptions to Iranian supply or to Iranian attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, it could cause oil prices to jump, perhaps to around $100 per barrel,” William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients quoted by Deutsche Welle.
Higher prices at the gas pump could spell trouble for Republicans ahead of midterm elections in November, as many Americans are already struggling with an affordability crisis.
Inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, its tamest pace since last May, but prices remain stubbornly high on many goods – including groceries, furniture and clothing, according to the most recently available Consumer Price Index.
Nearly half of respondents said they would be less likely to support Trump’s attacks in Iran if gas prices rise in the US, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
“Gasoline prices are psychologically powerful,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial. “They are the inflation number that consumers see every single day.”
Follow The Post’s coverage of the United States’ airstrikes on Iran:
There could be a “double whammy” effect if Iran continues to hold the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint, since the Persian Gulf also plays a major role in trade routes to ports in Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, according to Zeinalzadeh.
It could make it more difficult for Americans to get their hands on goods often shipped from China and other Eastern countries, like apparel, textiles, chemical products and goods sold on Amazon, Temu and Shein, he said.
With Post wires
