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Tennis fans are in for a treat on Sunday morning when Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner meet in the finals of the Rome Masters.
This is the 11th time that Alcaraz and Sinner have met in their career (though it is the first time they’ve played in a Masters 1000 Final), with the Spaniard holding a 6-4 advantage in the series.
Sinner, playing in his first tournament since serving a three-month suspension for a banned substance, is a -146 favorite to win the match.
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Alcaraz vs. Sinner betting preview
It’s been another masterful clay season for Alcaraz.
The World No. 3 has gone 14-1 and has made it to the finals in all three tournaments he’s played on the dirt. Alcaraz defeated Lorenzo Mussetti in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters, but lost to Holger Rune in the showpiece at ATP Barcelona.
Alcaraz has dropped just six sets in 15 matches on clay in 2025, and just one so far in Rome.
Sinner has yet to lose a match in 2025, but he’s also been on the sidelines since winning the Australian Open back in January. The Italian has been superb in Rome, dropping just one set through his first five matches.
Alcaraz vs. Sinner pick
It’s not easy picking a winner for this match.
Alcaraz has been incredible on the clay after a middling (by his standards) start to the season on hard courts.
Sinner, meanwhile, looks like he hasn’t missed a beat despite being out of action for three months.
This looks like a coin flip, but the oddsmakers are not pricing it that way.
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They’ve installed the Italian as the favorite, which goes against Tennis Abstract’s model, which has Alcaraz as the decided favorite.
Sinner’s absence may be skewing the model’s projection, but it’s not crazy to make Alcaraz the slight favorite given how well he’s played on the dirt and how many top opponents he’s beaten in his last three tournaments.
The play: Alcaraz +122 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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