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Upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik has a massive edge over other Republicans in a hypothetical party primary to take on Gov. Kathy Hochul next year, a new poll found.
Some 64% of Republicans would support Stefanik — while only 8% would back Hudson Valley Rep. Michael Lawler, the survey of 1,108 likely Republican voters conducted by the firm co/efficient found.
Another 6% polled said they’d support Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in a hypothetical matchup, while 22% are undecided or back another candidate ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial race.
“Among the most likely contenders Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is widely known AND widely loved,” co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce said. “Over the last several years, Stefanik has become a fixture in both statewide and nationwide politics and is the face of change for New York State.”
Still, Munce was surprised that Stefanik amassed a 56- percentage point lead over Lawler, a popular lawmaker and also a rising star in the GOP.
“If I had my chips on the table, I thought Lawler would be in the mid-20s percent,” Munce told The Post.
“Typically, this early in an election cycle, a significant percentage of voters are still undecided and waiting to see who else may join the race,” the pollster added. “Today in New York, that is not the case. Minds are made up and Elise Stefanik looks all but guaranteed to be the Republicans’ choice to become the next Governor of New York.”
Stefanik, Lawler and Blakeman are eyeing a run for governor against the Democratic incumbent but no formal campaigns have kicked off — yet.
Stefanik, first elected to the House in 2014, has more widespread name recognition and popularity among Republican voters than Lawler or Blakeman, according to the poll.
For example, 64% of Republicans had a favorable view of Stefanik, 11% an unfavorable view and 24% had no opinion or did not know her.
By comparison, 25% of Republicans had a favorable view of Lawler, 9% an unfavorable view but a whopping 66% were unsure or never heard of him, the poll showed.
Blakeman was viewed favorably by 17% of Republicans, unfavorably by 11% and 72% were unsure or never heard of him, according to the survey.
Munce attributed some of Stefanik’s edge to the fact she is chairwoman of the House Republican Leadership and has a higher national profile because she has served in GOP House leadership for a number of years.
She was also nominated to be President Trump’s US Ambassador to the United Nations — but the president withdrew the selection earlier this year over concerns he needed her vote in Congress as the GOP holds only a razor-thin majority in the House.
Stefanik also had a prominent role grilling Ivy League college presidents over anti-Israel campus protests and antisemitism.
Trump suggested he was leaning toward giving Stefanik his blessing last month when he posted to TruthSocial an unsolicited endorsement of Lawler’s re-election campaign for Congress — even though the lawmaker hasn’t announced his intentions for 2026.
Lawler took a jaunt upstate two weeks ago, making stops in six counties and meeting with over a dozen county GOP committee chairs, as well as elected officials and other party faithful.
Several of the local Republican leaders who met with Lawler said they would be happy to back him should he choose to go up against Hochul next year.
One survey by Harper Polling claimed that Lawler — who represents the battleground 17th House District that takes in Rockland, Putnam and and portions of Westchester and Dutchess counties — would have a better shot at defeating Hochul than Stefanik, whose 21st District in the North Country borders both Vermont and Canada.
Lawler’s camp, when informed of the GOP primary poll, said Sunday the congressman is the stronger candidate in the general election.
“The real race is against Kathy Hochul and the data universally shows that Mike Lawler is the only Republican who can defeat her and actually get elected governor,” Lawler campaign spokesman Chris Russell said.
Lawler, first elected to Congress in 2022, has been a vocal critic of the controversial congestion pricing toll to enter Manhattan and has fought to increase the state and local tax deduction on federal returns for New Yorkers that was capped during Trump’s first term as president.
Munce anticipates that Stefanik, Lawler or a generic Republican would poll well against Kathy Hochul, given the governor’s underwhelming public approval ratings in surveys.
The co/efficient survey was conducted from June 18-20 via mobile texts and landline interviews and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.76% points.
