WASHINGTON — Businessman Nate Morris is gaining ground in the race to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), fueled by high favorability ratings, more name recognition, and the endorsement of the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk, according to an internal polling memo obtained by The Post.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates was commissioned by the Morris campaign to survey likely GOP primary voters in the Bluegrass State last month and found the candidate’s support had grown by 13 percentage points since the firm’s previous poll in August.
If a primary election were held today, a plurality of 29% would vote for former commonwealth Attorney General Daniel Cameron, while 21% would support Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) and 18% would support Morris, with another 29% undecided, the survey found.
However, President Trump’s top pollster found the race is a statistical tie among those who already have an opinion of all three contenders (Morris 28%, Cameron 26%, Barr 25%, with 21% undecided) — and Morris moves ahead by 20 percentage points when would be-voters are made aware of the Kirk endorsement, earning 42% support to 22% for Cameron and 16% for Barr, with 21% undecided.
The August poll had 40% of likely Republican voters supporting Cameron, 17% backing Barr, and 5% preferring Morris.
Morris’ net favorability also increased by 14 percentage points over the same period, helped by growing support “among the core of the party who strongly approve of President Trump,” the memo reported.
That’s one of the reasons, along with a negative view of McConnell, that tech mogul Elon Musk donated $10 million last month to the pro-Morris super PAC, Fight for Kentucky.
All three of Barr, Cameron, and Morris worked for or with McConnell at some point in their political careers, though the January survey found just 22% view the former Republican leader favorably and 71% have an unfavorable opinion.
Barr’s principal campaign committee holds a clear lead in the money race, with a more than $6.4 million campaign war chest, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission filings.
Those year-end filings also show Morris’ campaign with more than $1.4 million cash on hand, while Cameron’s registered just a little above $630,000.
Morris, a businessman who founded the waste and recycling firm Rubicon and later sold it for $2 billion, has been largely self-funding his campaign and is expected to continue loaning it money through the May 19 primary, sources said.
Trump has yet to make an endorsement, but both Barr, who has served in Congress since 2013, and Morris have been touting the backing of the president’s allies.
Barr has been endorsed by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and former White House physician and current Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), while Morris won over Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) as well as ex-Trump White House strategist Steve Bannon.
Meanwhile, both Cameron and Barr have attacked Morris for donating $5,000 to a Nikki Haley-supporting super PAC ahead of the 2024 GOP primary campaign.
That donation was made ahead of the ex-South Carolina governor’s entrance into the race, and Morris went on to be one of Trump’s top donors last cycle.
The poll surveyed 800 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters Jan. 27-29. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Data from an Aug. 5-7 poll of 600 likely GOP voters was also used.
“Daniel Cameron’s campaign is collapsing — outraised, outworked, and bleeding support with no resources to stop the slide,” said Alex Bellizzi, a campaign spokesman for Barr, in a statement. “Meanwhile, Nate Morris is in last place in his own poll and is in a statistical tie with a radical Democrat in Kentucky after burning over $8M of out-of-state money.”
“Republicans cannot afford to risk this seat on two failed politicians,” Bellizzi also said. “Only Andy Barr has the resources, the grassroots support, and the ability to put this race away for Republicans. Kentucky conservatives are rallying around Andy Barr, President Trump’s 2024 Chairman and top-ally in the House.”
