College football Week 9 predictions: Picks against the spread

For so many years, college football’s national championship chase was a charade. Legitimate title hopes belonged to a handful of elite programs.

Then, the transfer portal revived the Wild West, and NIL professionalized the sport, preventing traditional powers from hoarding the best talent, allowing five-star backups to accept starring roles and seven-figure salaries.

If money and school-hopping (and conference realignment) have stripped much of the romance from college football, they have also introduced an intoxicating era of possibility.

No. 16 Virginia (6-1) is in the mix for its first conference title in 30 years. No. 14 Texas Tech (6-1) is the heavy Big 12 favorite, in position to win its first league title in 31 years. No. 7 Georgia Tech is 7-0 for the first time in nearly six decades. No. 2 Indiana (7-0) is a national championship contender in possession of the most losses in FBS history. 

And Vanderbilt (6-1) is a top-10 team for the first time since 1947. The longtime SEC doormat is off to its best start since 1950 after defeating LSU for the first time in 35 years. 

“We’re not hiding it,” Vanderbilt tight end Cole Spence said after the win, “we’re trying to go win a national championship.” 

It is a statement that would have been absurd in any year before this one, but coach Clark Lea has turned the SEC’s academic outcast into a legitimate threat to the nation’s best (see: the back-and-forth battle at Alabama) after inheriting a winless roster in 2021. New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia is a Heisman candidate who needs just four wins in the final five games to clinch a once-unthinkable playoff berth.

No. 15 Missouri (6-1) is in the mix, too, but without a meaningful win in the past two seasons, having dropped its past four games against ranked opponents in the SEC. First-year starter Beau Pribula won’t be able to end the skid, having thrown five interceptions in three SEC games, while completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes in each game.

It is a new world. VANDERBILT (-2.5) has arrived.

Ucla (+25.5) over INDIANA

The Bruins looked likely to finish the season without a win when they fired DeShaun Foster, but UCLA has now won three straight under interim coach Tim Skippe. Foster’s incompetence should’ve been clear when the longtime running backs coach told Cam Skattebo he couldn’t be a successful college running back.

Syracuse (+17.5) over GEORGIA TECH

The Yellow Jackets are unbeaten, but their five power-conference wins have come by an average of seven points despite a soft schedule.

Ole Miss (+5.5) over OKLAHOMA

The love for the Sooners doesn’t compute. One-time Heisman candidate John Mateer leads the nation’s 82nd-ranked offense. Brent Venables’ top-ranked defense has built its reputation against some of the weakest offenses in America, having yet to play a single top-35 attack. Oklahoma isn’t ready for what Lane Kiffin — and an offense averaging nearly 500 yards per game — will bring.

Virginia (-10.5) over NORTH CAROLINA

We won’t have Bill Belichick to kick around much longer. Enjoy it while you can.

MEMPHIS (+5.5) over South Florida

So, Memphis was caught looking ahead to this playoff elimination game and is now getting nearly a touchdown at home in a coin-flip game? That makes sense.

Alabama (-12.5) over SOUTH CAROLINA

The Gamecocks have lost two home games against ranked teams by a combined 43 points and aren’t equipped to take advantage of the Tide’s greatest weakness, owning the nation’s 115th-ranked ground game. Alabama is 4-1-1 against the spread as a favorite and has a top-20 defense despite playing four straight games against top-20 offenses.

IOWA STATE (-2.5) over Byu

The Cougars, who are 7-0 for the second straight season, suffered their first loss last year after an emotional win over Utah. One week after this year’s Holy War win, BYU faces the well-rested Cyclones, who have one home loss in the past two seasons.

Oklahoma State (+38.5) over TEXAS TECH

Even if Behren Morton returns under center, this line is outrageous. The Red Raiders average 35.6 points against power-conference opponents.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7) over Texas

Last year, Arch Manning threw for 325 yards, with three total touchdowns, in a 35-13 win over the Bulldogs. Now, it feels like a miracle if he completes an 8-yard out route. Don’t hesitate to fade college football’s biggest fraud — who most recently completed 12 of 27 passes for 132 yards against Kentucky — against a team that has thrived as a home dog, beating Arizona State and taking Tennessee to overtime.

OREGON (-33.5) over Wisconsin

The Badgers have no points in their past 122 minutes of game time. They haven’t scored a touchdown in 11 ½ quarters. The best offense in the Big Ten (44.1 points per game) won’t take its foot off the gas (see: Oklahoma State, 69-3, and Rutgers, 56-10).

Stanford (+30.5) over MIAMI

Mario Cristobal has more outright losses as a double-digit favorite at home (four) than any coach in the past three years. The Hurricanes aren’t in danger of adding to that total, but Carson Beck’s seven interceptions in the past four games make it unwise to lay this massive number.

Texas A&M (-2.5) over LSU

The past eight meetings in this rivalry have been won by the home team, and the Tigers have only one loss at Death Valley in the past three years, but the best home atmosphere in college football can’t help the 85th-ranked offense in the nation against the SEC’s only unbeaten team. Though the Aggies have scored at least 40 points in both road games this season (including Notre Dame), LSU — which has lost its past two games as a small underdog — was held to 20 points in a pair of near upsets (Florida, South Carolina) at home.

MICHIGAN STATE (+14.5) over Michigan

Bryce Underwood’s alarming road splits — 151 passing yards per game and a 51.4 completion percentage — don’t inspire confidence in this rivalry game in East Lansing, where the Wolverines’ battered offensive line will be without left tackle Evan Link. The Spartans are 3-0 against the spread as underdogs this season.

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Tennessee (-9) over KENTUCKY

Even after leaving 14 points on the board against Alabama — on a pair of possessions inside the 2-yard line — the Vols are still tied for second in the nation in scoring (44.1 points per game). Best of luck to the last-place Wildcats, who haven’t topped 14 points in their past three games.

BEST BETS: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee.

SEASON: 51-69 (7-17).

2014-24 RECORD: 1,392-1,309-31.