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It’s rather fitting that the first game of Wild Card weekend is also the lowest-projected score of all six first-round playoff games.
Two floundering offenses that often get into slobber knocker-type wars will take to the gridiron Saturday to kick off a fascinating slate of games, culminating with Monday’s Vikings-Rams matchup.
The Chargers are three-point road favorites against Texans, who were considered a dark horse Super Bowl contender earlier this year.
The line has moved slightly from Chargers -2.5 to Chargers -3, where it’s stayed steady since Monday.
This game should feature two elite defenses, as the Chargers have the ninth-ranked unit, according to defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), while the Texans rated No. 3 in the NFL this season.
Chargers vs. Texans odds
| Team | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -3 (-105) | -155 | Over 42.5 (-105) |
| Texans | +3 (-115) | +135 | Under 42.5 (-115) |
Chargers vs. Texans prediction
Betting on an efficient market like the NFL during Wild Card weekend is never easy and the margins will be extremely thin.
If you think you’re betting with a major edge, say five percent or higher, you’re probably mistaken.
Mathematicians and pro gamblers are laying down the hammer on these games with loads of tools at their disposal.
As for a pick in this game, it’s two very evenly matched squads with excellent defensive prowess.
Betting on the NFL?
The Texans’ offensive line is among the worst in the NFL, rating 22nd in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate, respectively.
Their defensive line is the best in the NFL, ranking first in pass rush win rate and second in run stop win rate.
The defenses should reign supreme here in the early Saturday game.
Houston’s defense could show out and then we’re looking at a grind-it-out affair.
We’ll pick Under 42.5 total points for the first game of an exciting weekend.
PICK: Under 42.5 (-115, ESPN BET)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
